Frequentist Uncertainties on Neural Density Ratios with wifi Ensembles

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Benevedes, Sean, Thaler, Jesse
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Benevedes, Sean
Thaler, Jesse
author_facet Benevedes, Sean
Thaler, Jesse
contents We introduce wifi ensembles as a novel framework to obtain asymptotic frequentist uncertainties on density ratios, with a particular focus on neural ratio estimation in the context of high-energy physics. When the density ratio of interest is a likelihood ratio conditioned on parameters, wifi ensembles can be used to perform simulation-based inference on those parameters. After training the basis functions f_i(x), uncertainties on the weights w_i can be straightforwardly propagated to the estimated parameters without requiring extraneous bootstraps. To demonstrate this approach, we present an application in quantum chromodynamics at the Large Hadron Collider, using wifi ensembles to estimate the likelihood ratio between generated quark and gluon jets. We use this learned likelihood ratio to estimate the quark fraction in a synthetic mixed quark/gluon sample, showing that the resultant uncertainties empirically satisfy the desired coverage properties.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2506_00113
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Frequentist Uncertainties on Neural Density Ratios with wifi Ensembles
Benevedes, Sean
Thaler, Jesse
High Energy Physics - Phenomenology
High Energy Physics - Experiment
Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability
We introduce wifi ensembles as a novel framework to obtain asymptotic frequentist uncertainties on density ratios, with a particular focus on neural ratio estimation in the context of high-energy physics. When the density ratio of interest is a likelihood ratio conditioned on parameters, wifi ensembles can be used to perform simulation-based inference on those parameters. After training the basis functions f_i(x), uncertainties on the weights w_i can be straightforwardly propagated to the estimated parameters without requiring extraneous bootstraps. To demonstrate this approach, we present an application in quantum chromodynamics at the Large Hadron Collider, using wifi ensembles to estimate the likelihood ratio between generated quark and gluon jets. We use this learned likelihood ratio to estimate the quark fraction in a synthetic mixed quark/gluon sample, showing that the resultant uncertainties empirically satisfy the desired coverage properties.
title Frequentist Uncertainties on Neural Density Ratios with wifi Ensembles
topic High Energy Physics - Phenomenology
High Energy Physics - Experiment
Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.00113