Predictions of the LSST Solar System Yield: Near-Earth Objects, Main Belt Asteroids, Jupiter Trojans, and Trans-Neptunian Objects
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2025
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| author | Kurlander, Jacob A. Bernardinelli, Pedro H. Schwamb, Megan E. Juric, Mario Murtagh, Joseph Chandler, Colin Orion Merritt, Stephanie R. Nesvorny, David Vokrouhlicky, David Jones, R. Lynne Fedorets, Grigori Cornwall, Samuel Holman, Matthew J. Eggl, Siegfried Oldag, Drew West, Maxine Kubica, Jeremy Yoachim, Peter Moeyens, Joachim Kiker, Kathleen Buchanan, Laura E. |
| author_facet | Kurlander, Jacob A. Bernardinelli, Pedro H. Schwamb, Megan E. Juric, Mario Murtagh, Joseph Chandler, Colin Orion Merritt, Stephanie R. Nesvorny, David Vokrouhlicky, David Jones, R. Lynne Fedorets, Grigori Cornwall, Samuel Holman, Matthew J. Eggl, Siegfried Oldag, Drew West, Maxine Kubica, Jeremy Yoachim, Peter Moeyens, Joachim Kiker, Kathleen Buchanan, Laura E. |
| contents | The NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory is a new 8m-class survey facility presently being commissioned in Chile, expected to begin the 10yr-long Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) by the end of 2025. Using the purpose-built Sorcha survey simulator (Merritt et al. In Press), and near-final observing cadence, we perform the first high-fidelity simulation of LSST's solar system catalog for key small body populations. We show that the final LSST catalog will deliver over 1.1 billion observations of small bodies and raise the number of known objects to 1.27E5 near-Earth objects, 5.09E6 main belt asteroids, 1.09E5 Jupiter Trojans, and 3.70E4 trans-Neptunian objects. These represent 4-9x more objects than are presently known in each class, making LSST the largest source of data for small body science in this and the following decade. We characterize the measurements available for these populations, including orbits, griz colors, and lightcurves, and point out science opportunities they open. Importantly, we show that ~70% of the main asteroid belt and more distant populations will be discovered in the first two years of the survey, making high-impact solar system science possible from very early on. We make our simulated LSST catalog publicly available, allowing researchers to test their methods on an up-to-date, representative, full-scale simulation of LSST data. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2506_02487 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Predictions of the LSST Solar System Yield: Near-Earth Objects, Main Belt Asteroids, Jupiter Trojans, and Trans-Neptunian Objects Kurlander, Jacob A. Bernardinelli, Pedro H. Schwamb, Megan E. Juric, Mario Murtagh, Joseph Chandler, Colin Orion Merritt, Stephanie R. Nesvorny, David Vokrouhlicky, David Jones, R. Lynne Fedorets, Grigori Cornwall, Samuel Holman, Matthew J. Eggl, Siegfried Oldag, Drew West, Maxine Kubica, Jeremy Yoachim, Peter Moeyens, Joachim Kiker, Kathleen Buchanan, Laura E. Earth and Planetary Astrophysics Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics The NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory is a new 8m-class survey facility presently being commissioned in Chile, expected to begin the 10yr-long Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) by the end of 2025. Using the purpose-built Sorcha survey simulator (Merritt et al. In Press), and near-final observing cadence, we perform the first high-fidelity simulation of LSST's solar system catalog for key small body populations. We show that the final LSST catalog will deliver over 1.1 billion observations of small bodies and raise the number of known objects to 1.27E5 near-Earth objects, 5.09E6 main belt asteroids, 1.09E5 Jupiter Trojans, and 3.70E4 trans-Neptunian objects. These represent 4-9x more objects than are presently known in each class, making LSST the largest source of data for small body science in this and the following decade. We characterize the measurements available for these populations, including orbits, griz colors, and lightcurves, and point out science opportunities they open. Importantly, we show that ~70% of the main asteroid belt and more distant populations will be discovered in the first two years of the survey, making high-impact solar system science possible from very early on. We make our simulated LSST catalog publicly available, allowing researchers to test their methods on an up-to-date, representative, full-scale simulation of LSST data. |
| title | Predictions of the LSST Solar System Yield: Near-Earth Objects, Main Belt Asteroids, Jupiter Trojans, and Trans-Neptunian Objects |
| topic | Earth and Planetary Astrophysics Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.02487 |