Forecasting Seasonal Influenza Epidemics with Physics-Informed Neural Networks
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866918510558445568 |
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| author | Rama, Martina Santin, Gabriele Cencetti, Giulia Tizzoni, Michele Lepri, Bruno |
| author_facet | Rama, Martina Santin, Gabriele Cencetti, Giulia Tizzoni, Michele Lepri, Bruno |
| contents | Accurate epidemic forecasting is critical for informing public health decisions and timely interventions. While Physics-Informed Neural Networks have shown promise in various scientific domains, their potential application to real-time epidemic forecasting remains underexplored. Here, we present SIR-INN, a hybrid forecasting framework that integrates the mechanistic structure of the classical Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model into a neural network architecture. Trained once on synthetic epidemic scenarios, the model is able to generalize across epidemic conditions without retraining. From limited and noisy observations, SIR-INN infers key transmission parameters via Markov chain Monte Carlo, generating probabilistic short- and long-term forecasts. We validate SIR-INN using national influenza data from the Italian National Institute of Health in the 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 seasons. The model performs competitively with current state-of-the-art approaches, particularly in terms of Weighted Interval Score. It shows accurate predictive performance in nearly all phases of the outbreak, with improved accuracy observed for the 2024-2025 influenza season. Credible uncertainty intervals are consistently maintained, while coverage metrics highlight room for improvement in uncertainty calibration. SIR-INN offers a computationally efficient, transparent, and generalizable solution for epidemic forecasting, appropriately leveraging the framework's hybrid design. Its ability to provide real-time predictions of epidemic dynamics, together with uncertainty quantification, makes it a promising tool for real-world epidemic forecasting. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2506_03897 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Forecasting Seasonal Influenza Epidemics with Physics-Informed Neural Networks Rama, Martina Santin, Gabriele Cencetti, Giulia Tizzoni, Michele Lepri, Bruno Physics and Society Accurate epidemic forecasting is critical for informing public health decisions and timely interventions. While Physics-Informed Neural Networks have shown promise in various scientific domains, their potential application to real-time epidemic forecasting remains underexplored. Here, we present SIR-INN, a hybrid forecasting framework that integrates the mechanistic structure of the classical Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model into a neural network architecture. Trained once on synthetic epidemic scenarios, the model is able to generalize across epidemic conditions without retraining. From limited and noisy observations, SIR-INN infers key transmission parameters via Markov chain Monte Carlo, generating probabilistic short- and long-term forecasts. We validate SIR-INN using national influenza data from the Italian National Institute of Health in the 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 seasons. The model performs competitively with current state-of-the-art approaches, particularly in terms of Weighted Interval Score. It shows accurate predictive performance in nearly all phases of the outbreak, with improved accuracy observed for the 2024-2025 influenza season. Credible uncertainty intervals are consistently maintained, while coverage metrics highlight room for improvement in uncertainty calibration. SIR-INN offers a computationally efficient, transparent, and generalizable solution for epidemic forecasting, appropriately leveraging the framework's hybrid design. Its ability to provide real-time predictions of epidemic dynamics, together with uncertainty quantification, makes it a promising tool for real-world epidemic forecasting. |
| title | Forecasting Seasonal Influenza Epidemics with Physics-Informed Neural Networks |
| topic | Physics and Society |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.03897 |