Guardado en:
Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Rutten, Sara, Sumalinab, Bryan, Gressani, Oswaldo, Neyens, Thomas, Duarte, Elisa, Hens, Niel, Faes, Christel
Formato: Preprint
Publicado: 2025
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.04814
Etiquetas: Agregar Etiqueta
Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!
_version_ 1866914186992287744
author Rutten, Sara
Sumalinab, Bryan
Gressani, Oswaldo
Neyens, Thomas
Duarte, Elisa
Hens, Niel
Faes, Christel
author_facet Rutten, Sara
Sumalinab, Bryan
Gressani, Oswaldo
Neyens, Thomas
Duarte, Elisa
Hens, Niel
Faes, Christel
contents Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) have gained popularity for modeling nonlinear lagged relationships between exposures and outcomes. When applied to spatially referenced data, these models must account for spatial dependence, a challenge that has yet to be thoroughly explored within the penalized DLNM framework. This gap is mainly due to the complex model structure and high computational demands, particularly when dealing with large spatio-temporal datasets. To address this, we propose a novel Bayesian DLNM-Laplacian-P-splines (DLNM-LPS) approach that incorporates spatial dependence using conditional autoregressive (CAR) priors, a method commonly applied in disease mapping. Our approach offers a flexible framework for capturing nonlinear associations while accounting for spatial dependence. It uses the Laplace approximation to approximate the conditional posterior distribution of the regression parameters, eliminating the need for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, often used in Bayesian inference, thus improving computational efficiency. The methodology is evaluated through simulation studies and applied to analyze the relationship between temperature and mortality in London.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2506_04814
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Distributed lag non-linear models with Laplacian-P-splines for analysis of spatially structured time series
Rutten, Sara
Sumalinab, Bryan
Gressani, Oswaldo
Neyens, Thomas
Duarte, Elisa
Hens, Niel
Faes, Christel
Methodology
Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) have gained popularity for modeling nonlinear lagged relationships between exposures and outcomes. When applied to spatially referenced data, these models must account for spatial dependence, a challenge that has yet to be thoroughly explored within the penalized DLNM framework. This gap is mainly due to the complex model structure and high computational demands, particularly when dealing with large spatio-temporal datasets. To address this, we propose a novel Bayesian DLNM-Laplacian-P-splines (DLNM-LPS) approach that incorporates spatial dependence using conditional autoregressive (CAR) priors, a method commonly applied in disease mapping. Our approach offers a flexible framework for capturing nonlinear associations while accounting for spatial dependence. It uses the Laplace approximation to approximate the conditional posterior distribution of the regression parameters, eliminating the need for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, often used in Bayesian inference, thus improving computational efficiency. The methodology is evaluated through simulation studies and applied to analyze the relationship between temperature and mortality in London.
title Distributed lag non-linear models with Laplacian-P-splines for analysis of spatially structured time series
topic Methodology
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.04814