Token Signature: Predicting Chain-of-Thought Gains with Token Decoding Feature in Large Language Models

Fuente: arXiv
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Autores principales: Liu, Peijie, Xu, Fengli, Li, Yong
Formato: Preprint
Publicado: 2025
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author Liu, Peijie
Xu, Fengli
Li, Yong
author_facet Liu, Peijie
Xu, Fengli
Li, Yong
contents Chain-of-Thought (CoT) technique has proven effective in improving the performance of large language models (LLMs) on complex reasoning tasks. However, the performance gains are inconsistent across different tasks, and the underlying mechanism remains a long-standing research question. In this work, we make a preliminary observation that the monotonicity of token probability distributions may be correlated with the gains achieved through CoT reasoning. Leveraging this insight, we propose two indicators based on the token probability distribution to assess CoT effectiveness across different tasks. By combining instance-level indicators with logistic regression model, we introduce Dynamic CoT, a method that dynamically select between CoT and direct answer. Furthermore, we extend Dynamic CoT to closed-source models by transferring decision strategies learned from open-source models. Our indicators for assessing CoT effectiveness achieve an accuracy of 89.2\%, and Dynamic CoT reduces token consumption by more than 35\% while maintaining high accuracy. Overall, our work offers a novel perspective on the underlying mechanisms of CoT reasoning and provides a framework for its more efficient deployment.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2506_06008
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Token Signature: Predicting Chain-of-Thought Gains with Token Decoding Feature in Large Language Models
Liu, Peijie
Xu, Fengli
Li, Yong
Computation and Language
Artificial Intelligence
Chain-of-Thought (CoT) technique has proven effective in improving the performance of large language models (LLMs) on complex reasoning tasks. However, the performance gains are inconsistent across different tasks, and the underlying mechanism remains a long-standing research question. In this work, we make a preliminary observation that the monotonicity of token probability distributions may be correlated with the gains achieved through CoT reasoning. Leveraging this insight, we propose two indicators based on the token probability distribution to assess CoT effectiveness across different tasks. By combining instance-level indicators with logistic regression model, we introduce Dynamic CoT, a method that dynamically select between CoT and direct answer. Furthermore, we extend Dynamic CoT to closed-source models by transferring decision strategies learned from open-source models. Our indicators for assessing CoT effectiveness achieve an accuracy of 89.2\%, and Dynamic CoT reduces token consumption by more than 35\% while maintaining high accuracy. Overall, our work offers a novel perspective on the underlying mechanisms of CoT reasoning and provides a framework for its more efficient deployment.
title Token Signature: Predicting Chain-of-Thought Gains with Token Decoding Feature in Large Language Models
topic Computation and Language
Artificial Intelligence
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.06008