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| Autores principales: | , , , |
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2025
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| Acceso en línea: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.10914 |
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| _version_ | 1866910030666661888 |
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| author | Ma, Yuchen Frauen, Dennis Javurek, Emil Feuerriegel, Stefan |
| author_facet | Ma, Yuchen Frauen, Dennis Javurek, Emil Feuerriegel, Stefan |
| contents | Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have recently been proposed as a promising way to train tabular foundation models. PFNs are transformers that are pre-trained on synthetic data generated from a prespecified prior distribution and that enable Bayesian inference through in-context learning. In this paper, we introduce CausalFM, a comprehensive framework for training PFN-based foundation models in various causal inference settings. First, we formalize the construction of Bayesian priors for causal inference based on structural causal models (SCMs) in a principled way and derive necessary criteria for the validity of such priors. Building on this, we propose a novel family of prior distributions using causality-inspired Bayesian neural networks that enable CausalFM to perform Bayesian causal inference in various settings, including for back-door, front-door, and instrumental variable adjustment. Finally, we instantiate CausalFM and explicitly train models to perform in-context learning in these settings. We show that CausalFM achieves competitive in-context learning performance even when compared to baselines that are specifically trained for the task at hand. In sum, our framework can be used as a general recipe to train foundation models for various causal inference settings. In contrast to the current state-of-the-art in causal inference, CausalFM offers a novel paradigm with the potential to fundamentally change how practitioners perform causal inference in medicine, economics, and other disciplines. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2506_10914 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Foundation Models for Causal Inference via Prior-Data Fitted Networks Ma, Yuchen Frauen, Dennis Javurek, Emil Feuerriegel, Stefan Machine Learning Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have recently been proposed as a promising way to train tabular foundation models. PFNs are transformers that are pre-trained on synthetic data generated from a prespecified prior distribution and that enable Bayesian inference through in-context learning. In this paper, we introduce CausalFM, a comprehensive framework for training PFN-based foundation models in various causal inference settings. First, we formalize the construction of Bayesian priors for causal inference based on structural causal models (SCMs) in a principled way and derive necessary criteria for the validity of such priors. Building on this, we propose a novel family of prior distributions using causality-inspired Bayesian neural networks that enable CausalFM to perform Bayesian causal inference in various settings, including for back-door, front-door, and instrumental variable adjustment. Finally, we instantiate CausalFM and explicitly train models to perform in-context learning in these settings. We show that CausalFM achieves competitive in-context learning performance even when compared to baselines that are specifically trained for the task at hand. In sum, our framework can be used as a general recipe to train foundation models for various causal inference settings. In contrast to the current state-of-the-art in causal inference, CausalFM offers a novel paradigm with the potential to fundamentally change how practitioners perform causal inference in medicine, economics, and other disciplines. |
| title | Foundation Models for Causal Inference via Prior-Data Fitted Networks |
| topic | Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.10914 |