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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2025
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| Accesso online: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.12764 |
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| _version_ | 1866915397512462336 |
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| author | Emma, Kondrup |
| author_facet | Emma, Kondrup |
| contents | Dynamic link prediction remains a central challenge in temporal graph learning, particularly in designing models that are both effective and practical for real-world deployment. Existing approaches often rely on complex neural architectures, which are computationally intensive and difficult to interpret.
In this work, we build on the strong recurrence-based foundation of the EdgeBank baseline, by supplementing it with inductive capabilities. We do so by leveraging the predictive power of non-learnable signals from two complementary perspectives: historical edge recurrence, as captured by EdgeBank, and global node popularity, as introduced in the PopTrack model. We propose t-CoMem, a lightweight memory module that tracks temporal co-occurrence patterns and neighborhood activity. Building on this, we introduce Base3, an interpolation-based model that fuses EdgeBank, PopTrack, and t-CoMem into a unified scoring framework. This combination effectively bridges local and global temporal dynamics -- repetition, popularity, and context -- without relying on training. Evaluated on the Temporal Graph Benchmark, Base3 achieves performance competitive with state-of-the-art deep models, even outperforming them on some datasets. Importantly, it considerably improves on existing baselines' performance under more realistic and challenging negative sampling strategies -- offering a simple yet robust alternative for temporal graph learning. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2506_12764 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Base3: a simple interpolation-based ensemble method for robust dynamic link prediction Emma, Kondrup Machine Learning Dynamic link prediction remains a central challenge in temporal graph learning, particularly in designing models that are both effective and practical for real-world deployment. Existing approaches often rely on complex neural architectures, which are computationally intensive and difficult to interpret. In this work, we build on the strong recurrence-based foundation of the EdgeBank baseline, by supplementing it with inductive capabilities. We do so by leveraging the predictive power of non-learnable signals from two complementary perspectives: historical edge recurrence, as captured by EdgeBank, and global node popularity, as introduced in the PopTrack model. We propose t-CoMem, a lightweight memory module that tracks temporal co-occurrence patterns and neighborhood activity. Building on this, we introduce Base3, an interpolation-based model that fuses EdgeBank, PopTrack, and t-CoMem into a unified scoring framework. This combination effectively bridges local and global temporal dynamics -- repetition, popularity, and context -- without relying on training. Evaluated on the Temporal Graph Benchmark, Base3 achieves performance competitive with state-of-the-art deep models, even outperforming them on some datasets. Importantly, it considerably improves on existing baselines' performance under more realistic and challenging negative sampling strategies -- offering a simple yet robust alternative for temporal graph learning. |
| title | Base3: a simple interpolation-based ensemble method for robust dynamic link prediction |
| topic | Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.12764 |