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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.13352 |
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| _version_ | 1866911203357360128 |
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| author | Duan, Kai-Kai Wang, Xiao Li, Wen-Hao Xu, Zhi-Hui Tsai, Yue-Lin Sming Fan, Yi-Zhong |
| author_facet | Duan, Kai-Kai Wang, Xiao Li, Wen-Hao Xu, Zhi-Hui Tsai, Yue-Lin Sming Fan, Yi-Zhong |
| contents | This study examines the impact of solar modulation on the antiproton excess observed by AMS-02, which may indicate dark matter (DM) annihilation. We analyze three solar modulation models: the force-field approximation (FFA), a time-, charge-, and rigidity-dependent FFA, and a three-dimensional numerical simulation based on the Parker transport equation. Based on AMS-02 latest antiproton data (2025), our results show that the significance of the DM signal is sensitive to the chosen modulation model, with a 2$σ$ signal for the FFA (4$σ$ if including data from H, He, C, O, B/C, and B/O) and a reduced significance for more complex models. We also address systematic uncertainties using two methods: the add-in-quadrature method, which assumes uncorrelated uncertainties between energy bins, and the nuisance parameter method, which treats systematic uncertainties as nuisance parameters during the fitting process. Fitted to AMS-02 antiproton data, DM annihilation to the $b\bar{b}$ scenario with three different solar modulation models shows that the add-in-quadrature method causes overfitting, whereas the nuisance parameters approach leads to underfitting. Statistically, the signal region of the FFA model using the add-in-quadrature method is the most reliable. This work highlights the need for refined solar modulation models and a better treatment of uncertainties for a conclusive interpretation of the AMS-02 data. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2506_13352 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Scrutinizing the impact of the solar modulation on AMS-02 antiproton excess Duan, Kai-Kai Wang, Xiao Li, Wen-Hao Xu, Zhi-Hui Tsai, Yue-Lin Sming Fan, Yi-Zhong Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena This study examines the impact of solar modulation on the antiproton excess observed by AMS-02, which may indicate dark matter (DM) annihilation. We analyze three solar modulation models: the force-field approximation (FFA), a time-, charge-, and rigidity-dependent FFA, and a three-dimensional numerical simulation based on the Parker transport equation. Based on AMS-02 latest antiproton data (2025), our results show that the significance of the DM signal is sensitive to the chosen modulation model, with a 2$σ$ signal for the FFA (4$σ$ if including data from H, He, C, O, B/C, and B/O) and a reduced significance for more complex models. We also address systematic uncertainties using two methods: the add-in-quadrature method, which assumes uncorrelated uncertainties between energy bins, and the nuisance parameter method, which treats systematic uncertainties as nuisance parameters during the fitting process. Fitted to AMS-02 antiproton data, DM annihilation to the $b\bar{b}$ scenario with three different solar modulation models shows that the add-in-quadrature method causes overfitting, whereas the nuisance parameters approach leads to underfitting. Statistically, the signal region of the FFA model using the add-in-quadrature method is the most reliable. This work highlights the need for refined solar modulation models and a better treatment of uncertainties for a conclusive interpretation of the AMS-02 data. |
| title | Scrutinizing the impact of the solar modulation on AMS-02 antiproton excess |
| topic | Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.13352 |