Assessing the Impact of Vaccination on Rotavirus Transmission Dynamics Using Bayesian Inference
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arXiv
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| Hauptverfasser: | , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866911009800716288 |
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| author | Rosato, Conor Murphy, Joshua Maskell, Simon Harris, John |
| author_facet | Rosato, Conor Murphy, Joshua Maskell, Simon Harris, John |
| contents | The introduction of the rotavirus vaccine in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2013 led to a noticeable decline in laboratory reports in subsequent years. To assess the impact of vaccination on rotavirus transmissibility we calibrated a stochastic compartmental epidemiological model using Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods. Our analysis focuses on estimating the time-varying transmissibility parameter and documenting its evolution before and after vaccine rollout. We observe distinct periods of increasing and decreasing transmissibility, reflecting the dynamic response of rotavirus spread to immunization efforts. These findings improve our understanding of vaccination-driven shifts in disease transmission and provide a quantitative framework for evaluating long-term epidemiological trends. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2506_14536 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Assessing the Impact of Vaccination on Rotavirus Transmission Dynamics Using Bayesian Inference Rosato, Conor Murphy, Joshua Maskell, Simon Harris, John Populations and Evolution Applications The introduction of the rotavirus vaccine in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2013 led to a noticeable decline in laboratory reports in subsequent years. To assess the impact of vaccination on rotavirus transmissibility we calibrated a stochastic compartmental epidemiological model using Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods. Our analysis focuses on estimating the time-varying transmissibility parameter and documenting its evolution before and after vaccine rollout. We observe distinct periods of increasing and decreasing transmissibility, reflecting the dynamic response of rotavirus spread to immunization efforts. These findings improve our understanding of vaccination-driven shifts in disease transmission and provide a quantitative framework for evaluating long-term epidemiological trends. |
| title | Assessing the Impact of Vaccination on Rotavirus Transmission Dynamics Using Bayesian Inference |
| topic | Populations and Evolution Applications |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.14536 |