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Main Authors: Traxler, Caleb, Townsend, Samuel, Mori, Abby, Newman, Grace, Morenzone, Kaitlyn
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.18200
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author Traxler, Caleb
Townsend, Samuel
Mori, Abby
Newman, Grace
Morenzone, Kaitlyn
author_facet Traxler, Caleb
Townsend, Samuel
Mori, Abby
Newman, Grace
Morenzone, Kaitlyn
contents We present a comprehensive multivariate statistical analysis of 517 exoplanets from the NASA Exoplanet Archive to identify potentially habitable worlds and quantify detection bias in current surveys. Using eight key parameters (planetary radius, equilibrium temperature, insolation flux, density, and stellar effective temperature, radius, mass, metallicity), we developed a classification framework that successfully identifies Earth as an "Excellent Candidate" for habitability. Our analysis reveals that only 0.6% (3 planets including Earth) meet all habitability criteria under relaxed thresholds, while 75.0% exhibit "Good Star, Poor Planet" characteristics, indicating significant observational bias toward unsuitable planetary systems. Hotelling's T2 test demonstrates that potentially habitable planets are statistically significantly different from the general exoplanet population (p = 0.015). Mahalanobis distance analysis places Earth in the 69.4th percentile for statistical unusualness, confirming that Earth-like planets are genuine outliers in parameter space. We identify Kepler-22 b as a compelling Earth analog with remarkable parameter similarity, and reveal that 1.2% of planets represent "edge cases" orbiting M-dwarf stars with suitable planetary but marginal stellar conditions. These findings demonstrate systematic detection bias in exoplanet surveys and provide quantitative evidence for the rarity of Earth-like worlds while identifying high-priority targets for atmospheric characterization with JWST.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2506_18200
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Multivariate Statistical Analysis of Exoplanet Habitability: Detection Bias and Earth Analog Identification
Traxler, Caleb
Townsend, Samuel
Mori, Abby
Newman, Grace
Morenzone, Kaitlyn
Earth and Planetary Astrophysics
Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics
Applications
We present a comprehensive multivariate statistical analysis of 517 exoplanets from the NASA Exoplanet Archive to identify potentially habitable worlds and quantify detection bias in current surveys. Using eight key parameters (planetary radius, equilibrium temperature, insolation flux, density, and stellar effective temperature, radius, mass, metallicity), we developed a classification framework that successfully identifies Earth as an "Excellent Candidate" for habitability. Our analysis reveals that only 0.6% (3 planets including Earth) meet all habitability criteria under relaxed thresholds, while 75.0% exhibit "Good Star, Poor Planet" characteristics, indicating significant observational bias toward unsuitable planetary systems. Hotelling's T2 test demonstrates that potentially habitable planets are statistically significantly different from the general exoplanet population (p = 0.015). Mahalanobis distance analysis places Earth in the 69.4th percentile for statistical unusualness, confirming that Earth-like planets are genuine outliers in parameter space. We identify Kepler-22 b as a compelling Earth analog with remarkable parameter similarity, and reveal that 1.2% of planets represent "edge cases" orbiting M-dwarf stars with suitable planetary but marginal stellar conditions. These findings demonstrate systematic detection bias in exoplanet surveys and provide quantitative evidence for the rarity of Earth-like worlds while identifying high-priority targets for atmospheric characterization with JWST.
title Multivariate Statistical Analysis of Exoplanet Habitability: Detection Bias and Earth Analog Identification
topic Earth and Planetary Astrophysics
Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics
Applications
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.18200