100-Day Analysis of USD/IDR Exchange Rate Dynamics Around the 2025 U.S. Presidential Inauguration
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arXiv
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2025
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| _version_ | 1866908417351745536 |
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| author | Herho, Sandy H. S. Kaban, Siti N. Nugraha, Cahya |
| author_facet | Herho, Sandy H. S. Kaban, Siti N. Nugraha, Cahya |
| contents | Using a 100-day symmetric window around the January 2025 U.S. presidential inauguration, non-parametric statistical methods with bootstrap resampling (10,000 iterations) analyze distributional properties and anomalies. Results indicate a statistically significant 3.61\% Indonesian rupiah depreciation post-inauguration, with a large effect size (Cliff's Delta $= -0.9224$, CI: $[-0.9727, -0.8571]$). Central tendency shifted markedly, yet volatility remained stable (variance ratio $= 0.9061$, $p = 0.504$). Four significant anomalies exhibiting temporal clustering are detected. These findings provide quantitative evidence of political transition effects on emerging market currencies, highlighting implications for monetary policy and currency risk management. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2506_18738 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | 100-Day Analysis of USD/IDR Exchange Rate Dynamics Around the 2025 U.S. Presidential Inauguration Herho, Sandy H. S. Kaban, Siti N. Nugraha, Cahya Econometrics Applications Using a 100-day symmetric window around the January 2025 U.S. presidential inauguration, non-parametric statistical methods with bootstrap resampling (10,000 iterations) analyze distributional properties and anomalies. Results indicate a statistically significant 3.61\% Indonesian rupiah depreciation post-inauguration, with a large effect size (Cliff's Delta $= -0.9224$, CI: $[-0.9727, -0.8571]$). Central tendency shifted markedly, yet volatility remained stable (variance ratio $= 0.9061$, $p = 0.504$). Four significant anomalies exhibiting temporal clustering are detected. These findings provide quantitative evidence of political transition effects on emerging market currencies, highlighting implications for monetary policy and currency risk management. |
| title | 100-Day Analysis of USD/IDR Exchange Rate Dynamics Around the 2025 U.S. Presidential Inauguration |
| topic | Econometrics Applications |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.18738 |