Forecasting Geopolitical Events with a Sparse Temporal Fusion Transformer and Gaussian Process Hybrid: A Case Study in Middle Eastern and U.S. Conflict Dynamics
Fuente:
arXiv
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | Huang, Hsin-Hsiung, Hampton, Hayden |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
Similar Items
The Long-Range Memory and the Fractal Dimension: a Case Study for Alcântara
by: Correa, Cleber Souza, et al.
Published: (2026)
by: Correa, Cleber Souza, et al.
Published: (2026)
Spatio-Temporal Jump Model for Urban Thermal Comfort Monitoring
by: Cortese, Federico P., et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Cortese, Federico P., et al.
Published: (2024)
A comparison between initialization strategies for the infinite hidden Markov model
by: Cortese, Federico P., et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Cortese, Federico P., et al.
Published: (2025)
Multidecadal Cycles Study in the Climate Indexes Series Using Wavelet Analysis in North/Northeast Brazil
by: Corrêa, Cleber Souza, et al.
Published: (2026)
by: Corrêa, Cleber Souza, et al.
Published: (2026)
Statistical Jump Model for Mixed-Type Data with Missing Data Imputation
by: Cortese, Federico P., et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Cortese, Federico P., et al.
Published: (2024)
Multidecadal Cycles of the Climatic Index: Sunspots that Affect North and Northeast of Brazil
by: Corrêa, Cleber Souza, et al.
Published: (2026)
by: Corrêa, Cleber Souza, et al.
Published: (2026)
P3LS: Point Process Partial Least Squares
by: Namdari, Jamshid, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Namdari, Jamshid, et al.
Published: (2024)
Estimation of Spatial and Temporal Autoregressive Effects using LASSO - An Example of Hourly Particulate Matter Concentrations
by: Nyabuto, Elkanah, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Nyabuto, Elkanah, et al.
Published: (2025)
Spatiotemporal dynamics of wind-speed volatility
by: Chrisko, Ariane Nidelle Meli, et al.
Published: (2026)
by: Chrisko, Ariane Nidelle Meli, et al.
Published: (2026)
Modelling clusters in network time series with an application to presidential elections in the USA
by: Nason, Guy, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Nason, Guy, et al.
Published: (2024)
Bivariate generalized autoregressive models for forecasting bivariate non-Gaussian times series
by: Ribeiro, Tatiane Fontana, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Ribeiro, Tatiane Fontana, et al.
Published: (2025)
Bandwidth selection with a frequency-domain version of the AIC
by: Reschenhofer, Erhard
Published: (2026)
by: Reschenhofer, Erhard
Published: (2026)
Detecting State Changes in Functional Neuronal Connectivity using Factorial Switching Linear Dynamical Systems
by: Gong, Yiwei, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Gong, Yiwei, et al.
Published: (2024)
A Kolmogorov-Zurbenko Fourier Transform Band-pass Filter Extension for Time Series Analysis
by: Valachovic, Edward
Published: (2025)
by: Valachovic, Edward
Published: (2025)
Empirical study of periodic autoregressive models with additive noise -- estimation and testing
by: Żuławiński, Wojciech, et al.
Published: (2023)
by: Żuławiński, Wojciech, et al.
Published: (2023)
Statistical Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Variability of Maximum Precipitation Events on the Rio Grande do Sul
by: Corrêa, Cleber Souza
Published: (2026)
by: Corrêa, Cleber Souza
Published: (2026)
Simple yet effective: a comparative study of statistical models for yearly hurricane forecasting
by: Colombo, Pietro, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Colombo, Pietro, et al.
Published: (2024)
ANOVATS: A subsampling-based test to detect differences among short time series in marine studies
by: Goto, Yuichi, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Goto, Yuichi, et al.
Published: (2025)
The Variable Multiple Bandpass Periodic Block Bootstrap for Time Series with Multiple Periodic Correlations
by: Valachovic, Edward
Published: (2025)
by: Valachovic, Edward
Published: (2025)
An Extension of the Iterated Moving Average
by: Valachovic, Edward
Published: (2025)
by: Valachovic, Edward
Published: (2025)
Inference for multiple change-points in generalized integer-valued autoregressive model
by: Sheng, Danshu, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Sheng, Danshu, et al.
Published: (2024)
Extending finite mixture models with skew-normal distributions and hidden Markov models for time series
by: Nigri, Andrea, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Nigri, Andrea, et al.
Published: (2025)
A changepoint approach to modelling non-stationary soil moisture dynamics
by: Gong, Mengyi, et al.
Published: (2023)
by: Gong, Mengyi, et al.
Published: (2023)
Identification and estimation of structural vector autoregressive models via LU decomposition
by: Shimokawa, Masato, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Shimokawa, Masato, et al.
Published: (2025)
Exponential Spatiotemporal GARCH Model with Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers
by: Chrisko, Ariane Nidelle Meli, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Chrisko, Ariane Nidelle Meli, et al.
Published: (2025)
Seasonal and Periodic Patterns in US COVID-19 Mortality using the Variable Bandpass Periodic Block Bootstrap
by: Valachovic, Edward, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Valachovic, Edward, et al.
Published: (2024)
Comparative Analysis of Spatiotemporal Volatility Models: An Empirical Study on Financial Network Series
by: Chrisko, Ariane N. Meli, et al.
Published: (2026)
by: Chrisko, Ariane N. Meli, et al.
Published: (2026)
The Predictive-Causal Gap: An Impossibility Theorem and Large-Scale Neural Evidence
by: Liu, Kejun
Published: (2026)
by: Liu, Kejun
Published: (2026)
Simultaneous Graphical Dynamic Modeling
by: West, Mike, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: West, Mike, et al.
Published: (2024)
grangersearch: An R Package for Exhaustive Granger Causality Testing with Tidyverse Integration
by: Korfiatis, Nikolaos
Published: (2026)
by: Korfiatis, Nikolaos
Published: (2026)
A Novel Hybrid Approach for Time Series Forecasting: Period Estimation and Climate Data Analysis Using Unsupervised Learning and Spline Interpolation
by: Kayal, Tanmay, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Kayal, Tanmay, et al.
Published: (2025)
Mitigating the choice of the duration in DDMS models through a parametric link
by: Mendes, Fernando Henrique de Paula e Silva, et al.
Published: (2023)
by: Mendes, Fernando Henrique de Paula e Silva, et al.
Published: (2023)
Compositional dynamic modelling for causal prediction in multivariate time series
by: Li, Kevin, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Li, Kevin, et al.
Published: (2024)
Multivariate Low-Rank State-Space Model with SPDE Approach for High-Dimensional Data
by: Rodeschini, Jacopo, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Rodeschini, Jacopo, et al.
Published: (2025)
Periodicity in New York State COVID-19 Hospitalizations Leveraged from the Variable Bandpass Periodic Block Bootstrap
by: Ahmad, Asmaa, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Ahmad, Asmaa, et al.
Published: (2024)
Robust Short-Term OEE Forecasting in Industry 4.0 via Topological Data Analysis
by: Anapa, Korkut, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Anapa, Korkut, et al.
Published: (2025)
Forecasting intermittent time series with Gaussian Processes and Tweedie likelihood
by: Damato, Stefano, et al.
Published: (2025)
by: Damato, Stefano, et al.
Published: (2025)
Leveraging Non-Decimated Wavelet Packet Features and Transformer Models for Time Series Forecasting
by: Nason, Guy P, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Nason, Guy P, et al.
Published: (2024)
Bitcoin's Power Law: Weak Structure, Strong Forecasts
by: Baquero, Carlos, et al.
Published: (2026)
by: Baquero, Carlos, et al.
Published: (2026)
On the optimal prediction of extreme events in heavy-tailed time series with applications to solar flare forecasting
by: Verma, Victor, et al.
Published: (2024)
by: Verma, Victor, et al.
Published: (2024)
Similar Items
-
The Long-Range Memory and the Fractal Dimension: a Case Study for Alcântara
by: Correa, Cleber Souza, et al.
Published: (2026) -
Spatio-Temporal Jump Model for Urban Thermal Comfort Monitoring
by: Cortese, Federico P., et al.
Published: (2024) -
A comparison between initialization strategies for the infinite hidden Markov model
by: Cortese, Federico P., et al.
Published: (2025) -
Multidecadal Cycles Study in the Climate Indexes Series Using Wavelet Analysis in North/Northeast Brazil
by: Corrêa, Cleber Souza, et al.
Published: (2026) -
Statistical Jump Model for Mixed-Type Data with Missing Data Imputation
by: Cortese, Federico P., et al.
Published: (2024)