Institutional Noise, Strategic Deviation, and Intertemporal Collapse: A Formal Model of Miner Behaviour under Protocol Uncertainty

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Author: Wright, Craig Steven
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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_version_ 1866918070570713088
author Wright, Craig Steven
author_facet Wright, Craig Steven
contents This paper develops a formal game-theoretic model to examine how protocol mutability disrupts cooperative mining behaviour in blockchain systems. Using a repeated game framework with stochastic rule shocks, we show that even minor uncertainty in institutional rules increases time preference and induces strategic deviation. Fixed-rule environments support long-term investment and stable equilibrium strategies; in contrast, mutable protocols lead to short-termism, higher discounting, and collapse of coordinated engagement. Simulation results identify instability zones in the parameter space where rational mining gives way to extractive or arbitrage conduct. These findings support an Austrian economic interpretation: calculability requires rule stability. Institutional noise undermines the informational basis for productive action. We conclude that protocol design must be treated as a constitutional economic constraint, not a discretionary variable, if sustainable cooperation is to emerge in decentralised systems.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2506_20992
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Institutional Noise, Strategic Deviation, and Intertemporal Collapse: A Formal Model of Miner Behaviour under Protocol Uncertainty
Wright, Craig Steven
General Economics
Economics
Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science
Computers and Society
Computer Science and Game Theory
Social and Information Networks
91A05, 91B42, 68M14, 91B62
J.4; C.2.4; K.4.1; F.1.1
This paper develops a formal game-theoretic model to examine how protocol mutability disrupts cooperative mining behaviour in blockchain systems. Using a repeated game framework with stochastic rule shocks, we show that even minor uncertainty in institutional rules increases time preference and induces strategic deviation. Fixed-rule environments support long-term investment and stable equilibrium strategies; in contrast, mutable protocols lead to short-termism, higher discounting, and collapse of coordinated engagement. Simulation results identify instability zones in the parameter space where rational mining gives way to extractive or arbitrage conduct. These findings support an Austrian economic interpretation: calculability requires rule stability. Institutional noise undermines the informational basis for productive action. We conclude that protocol design must be treated as a constitutional economic constraint, not a discretionary variable, if sustainable cooperation is to emerge in decentralised systems.
title Institutional Noise, Strategic Deviation, and Intertemporal Collapse: A Formal Model of Miner Behaviour under Protocol Uncertainty
topic General Economics
Economics
Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science
Computers and Society
Computer Science and Game Theory
Social and Information Networks
91A05, 91B42, 68M14, 91B62
J.4; C.2.4; K.4.1; F.1.1
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.20992