Putting Skill as Nearly Indistinguishable from Noise: An Empirical Bayes Analysis of PGA Tour Performance
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arXiv
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| Hauptverfasser: | , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866908425364963328 |
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| author | Brill, Ryan S. Wyner, Abraham J. |
| author_facet | Brill, Ryan S. Wyner, Abraham J. |
| contents | We revisit a foundational question in golf analytics: how important are the core components of performance--driving, approach play, and putting--in explaining success on the PGA Tour? Building on Mark Broadie's strokes gained analyses, we use an empirical Bayes approach to estimate latent golfer skill and assess statistical significance using a multiple testing procedure that controls the false discovery rate. While tee-to-green skill shows clear and substantial differences across players, putting skill is both less variable and far less reliably estimable. Indeed, putting performance appears nearly indistinguishable from noise. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2506_21822 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Putting Skill as Nearly Indistinguishable from Noise: An Empirical Bayes Analysis of PGA Tour Performance Brill, Ryan S. Wyner, Abraham J. Applications We revisit a foundational question in golf analytics: how important are the core components of performance--driving, approach play, and putting--in explaining success on the PGA Tour? Building on Mark Broadie's strokes gained analyses, we use an empirical Bayes approach to estimate latent golfer skill and assess statistical significance using a multiple testing procedure that controls the false discovery rate. While tee-to-green skill shows clear and substantial differences across players, putting skill is both less variable and far less reliably estimable. Indeed, putting performance appears nearly indistinguishable from noise. |
| title | Putting Skill as Nearly Indistinguishable from Noise: An Empirical Bayes Analysis of PGA Tour Performance |
| topic | Applications |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.21822 |