Anytime-Valid Tests for Sparse Anomalies

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Main Authors: Pérez-Ortiz, Muriel F., Castro, Rui M., Stoepker, Ivo V.
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Pérez-Ortiz, Muriel F.
Castro, Rui M.
Stoepker, Ivo V.
author_facet Pérez-Ortiz, Muriel F.
Castro, Rui M.
Stoepker, Ivo V.
contents We consider the problem of testing sequentially for the presence of sparse anomalies among a large number of data streams. To this end, we design and analyze Anytime-Valid (AV) tests, which retain type-I error control at arbitrary stopping times. Existing results address exclusively the nonsequential case, which exhibits a subtle phase transition between two regimes where tests are either powerless or powerful. In our sequential setting, we argue, two challenges arise: (1) the standard analysis of AV tests cannot be executed in the relevant sample-size regime; and (2) standard constructions of parameter-adaptive AV tests are either analytically intractable or computationally unfeasible. This work addresses these challenges. Borrowing insights from the nonsequential literature, we propose a framework to analyze AV tests and their shortest possible sample sizes. Under this framework, we show that, in the Gaussian location setting, the oracle AV test has a delicate threshold behavior that is related to -- but not implied by -- the phase transition observed in optimal nonsequential tests. Our main results include a computationally efficient, parameter-adaptive AV test; we show that it achieves the same threshold behavior as the oracle AV test. Numerical simulations illustrate these theoretical findings.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2506_22588
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Anytime-Valid Tests for Sparse Anomalies
Pérez-Ortiz, Muriel F.
Castro, Rui M.
Stoepker, Ivo V.
Statistics Theory
62F03, 62L10 (Primary), 60G40 (Secondary)
We consider the problem of testing sequentially for the presence of sparse anomalies among a large number of data streams. To this end, we design and analyze Anytime-Valid (AV) tests, which retain type-I error control at arbitrary stopping times. Existing results address exclusively the nonsequential case, which exhibits a subtle phase transition between two regimes where tests are either powerless or powerful. In our sequential setting, we argue, two challenges arise: (1) the standard analysis of AV tests cannot be executed in the relevant sample-size regime; and (2) standard constructions of parameter-adaptive AV tests are either analytically intractable or computationally unfeasible. This work addresses these challenges. Borrowing insights from the nonsequential literature, we propose a framework to analyze AV tests and their shortest possible sample sizes. Under this framework, we show that, in the Gaussian location setting, the oracle AV test has a delicate threshold behavior that is related to -- but not implied by -- the phase transition observed in optimal nonsequential tests. Our main results include a computationally efficient, parameter-adaptive AV test; we show that it achieves the same threshold behavior as the oracle AV test. Numerical simulations illustrate these theoretical findings.
title Anytime-Valid Tests for Sparse Anomalies
topic Statistics Theory
62F03, 62L10 (Primary), 60G40 (Secondary)
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.22588