Propagation of the Madden-Julian oscillation as a deterministic chaotic phenomenon
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arXiv
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| Hauptverfasser: | , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2025
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| _version_ | 1866915364106928128 |
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| author | Takasuka, Daisuke Suematsu, Tamaki Miura, Hiroaki Nakano, Masuo |
| author_facet | Takasuka, Daisuke Suematsu, Tamaki Miura, Hiroaki Nakano, Masuo |
| contents | The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), a gigantic tropical weather system, is marked by eastward travel of cumulus cloud clusters over the Indo-Pacific region and often causes severe weather and climate events worldwide. The physics and predictability of MJO propagation remain elusive, partly because of little attention to untangling roles of multi-scale processes relevant to the MJO. Here, we reveal the chaotic nature of MJO propagation arising from cross-scale nonlinear interactions, based on 4,000-member ensemble global cloud-system-resolving simulations of two MJO events. Against conventional linearized thinking, multiple regimes with distinct timings of MJO propagation emerge under a single atmosphere-ocean background. The bifurcation emergence depends critically on the equatorial asymmetry of climatological sea surface temperature. Selection of the bifurcated regimes is probabilistic, influenced by whether tropical-extratropical interplay promotes moistening associated with westward-propagating tropical waves over the western Pacific. These aspects help build a comprehensive MJO model and foresee when the MJO propagates. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2506_23195 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Propagation of the Madden-Julian oscillation as a deterministic chaotic phenomenon Takasuka, Daisuke Suematsu, Tamaki Miura, Hiroaki Nakano, Masuo Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), a gigantic tropical weather system, is marked by eastward travel of cumulus cloud clusters over the Indo-Pacific region and often causes severe weather and climate events worldwide. The physics and predictability of MJO propagation remain elusive, partly because of little attention to untangling roles of multi-scale processes relevant to the MJO. Here, we reveal the chaotic nature of MJO propagation arising from cross-scale nonlinear interactions, based on 4,000-member ensemble global cloud-system-resolving simulations of two MJO events. Against conventional linearized thinking, multiple regimes with distinct timings of MJO propagation emerge under a single atmosphere-ocean background. The bifurcation emergence depends critically on the equatorial asymmetry of climatological sea surface temperature. Selection of the bifurcated regimes is probabilistic, influenced by whether tropical-extratropical interplay promotes moistening associated with westward-propagating tropical waves over the western Pacific. These aspects help build a comprehensive MJO model and foresee when the MJO propagates. |
| title | Propagation of the Madden-Julian oscillation as a deterministic chaotic phenomenon |
| topic | Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.23195 |