Density, asymmetry and citation dynamics in scientific literature
Fuente:
arXiv
Guardado en:
| Autores principales: | , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2025
|
| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | |
| Etiquetas: |
Agregar Etiqueta
Sin Etiquetas, Sea el primero en etiquetar este registro!
|
| _version_ | 1866909665752776704 |
|---|---|
| author | Imel, Nathaniel Hafen, Zachary |
| author_facet | Imel, Nathaniel Hafen, Zachary |
| contents | Scientific behavior is often characterized by a tension between building upon established knowledge and introducing novel ideas. Here, we investigate whether this tension is reflected in the relationship between the similarity of a scientific paper to previous research and its eventual citation rate. To operationalize similarity to previous research, we introduce two complementary metrics to characterize the local geometry of a publication's semantic neighborhood: (1) \emph{density} ($ρ$), defined as the ratio between a fixed number of previously-published papers and the minimum distance enclosing those papers in a semantic embedding space, and (2) asymmetry ($α$), defined as the average directional difference between a paper and its nearest neighbors. We tested the predictive relationship between these two metrics and its subsequent citation rate using a Bayesian hierarchical regression approach, surveying $\sim 53,000$ publications across nine academic disciplines and five different document embeddings. While the individual effects of $ρ$ on citation count are small and variable, incorporating density-based predictors consistently improves out-of-sample prediction when added to baseline models. These results suggest that the density of a paper's surrounding scientific literature may carry modest but informative signals about its eventual impact. Meanwhile, we find no evidence that publication asymmetry improves model predictions of citation rates. Our work provides a scalable framework for linking document embeddings to scientometric outcomes and highlights new questions regarding the role that semantic similarity plays in shaping the dynamics of scientific reward. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2506_23366 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Density, asymmetry and citation dynamics in scientific literature Imel, Nathaniel Hafen, Zachary Digital Libraries Computation and Language Social and Information Networks Scientific behavior is often characterized by a tension between building upon established knowledge and introducing novel ideas. Here, we investigate whether this tension is reflected in the relationship between the similarity of a scientific paper to previous research and its eventual citation rate. To operationalize similarity to previous research, we introduce two complementary metrics to characterize the local geometry of a publication's semantic neighborhood: (1) \emph{density} ($ρ$), defined as the ratio between a fixed number of previously-published papers and the minimum distance enclosing those papers in a semantic embedding space, and (2) asymmetry ($α$), defined as the average directional difference between a paper and its nearest neighbors. We tested the predictive relationship between these two metrics and its subsequent citation rate using a Bayesian hierarchical regression approach, surveying $\sim 53,000$ publications across nine academic disciplines and five different document embeddings. While the individual effects of $ρ$ on citation count are small and variable, incorporating density-based predictors consistently improves out-of-sample prediction when added to baseline models. These results suggest that the density of a paper's surrounding scientific literature may carry modest but informative signals about its eventual impact. Meanwhile, we find no evidence that publication asymmetry improves model predictions of citation rates. Our work provides a scalable framework for linking document embeddings to scientometric outcomes and highlights new questions regarding the role that semantic similarity plays in shaping the dynamics of scientific reward. |
| title | Density, asymmetry and citation dynamics in scientific literature |
| topic | Digital Libraries Computation and Language Social and Information Networks |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.23366 |