Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm for Spatiotemporal Forecasting of HIV Clusters

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Roosan, Don, Nirzhor, Saif, Khan, Rubayat, Hai, Fahmida, Haidar, Mohammad Rifat
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Roosan, Don
Nirzhor, Saif
Khan, Rubayat
Hai, Fahmida
Haidar, Mohammad Rifat
author_facet Roosan, Don
Nirzhor, Saif
Khan, Rubayat
Hai, Fahmida
Haidar, Mohammad Rifat
contents HIV epidemiological data is increasingly complex, requiring advanced computation for accurate cluster detection and forecasting. We employed quantum-accelerated machine learning to analyze HIV prevalence at the ZIP-code level using AIDSVu and synthetic SDoH data for 2022. Our approach compared classical clustering (DBSCAN, HDBSCAN) with a quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA), developed a hybrid quantum-classical neural network for HIV prevalence forecasting, and used quantum Bayesian networks to explore causal links between SDoH factors and HIV incidence. The QAOA-based method achieved 92% accuracy in cluster detection within 1.6 seconds, outperforming classical algorithms. Meanwhile, the hybrid quantum-classical neural network predicted HIV prevalence with 94% accuracy, surpassing a purely classical counterpart. Quantum Bayesian analysis identified housing instability as a key driver of HIV cluster emergence and expansion, with stigma exerting a geographically variable influence. These quantum-enhanced methods deliver greater precision and efficiency in HIV surveillance while illuminating critical causal pathways. This work can guide targeted interventions, optimize resource allocation for PrEP, and address structural inequities fueling HIV transmission.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2507_00848
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm for Spatiotemporal Forecasting of HIV Clusters
Roosan, Don
Nirzhor, Saif
Khan, Rubayat
Hai, Fahmida
Haidar, Mohammad Rifat
Machine Learning
Molecular Networks
HIV epidemiological data is increasingly complex, requiring advanced computation for accurate cluster detection and forecasting. We employed quantum-accelerated machine learning to analyze HIV prevalence at the ZIP-code level using AIDSVu and synthetic SDoH data for 2022. Our approach compared classical clustering (DBSCAN, HDBSCAN) with a quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA), developed a hybrid quantum-classical neural network for HIV prevalence forecasting, and used quantum Bayesian networks to explore causal links between SDoH factors and HIV incidence. The QAOA-based method achieved 92% accuracy in cluster detection within 1.6 seconds, outperforming classical algorithms. Meanwhile, the hybrid quantum-classical neural network predicted HIV prevalence with 94% accuracy, surpassing a purely classical counterpart. Quantum Bayesian analysis identified housing instability as a key driver of HIV cluster emergence and expansion, with stigma exerting a geographically variable influence. These quantum-enhanced methods deliver greater precision and efficiency in HIV surveillance while illuminating critical causal pathways. This work can guide targeted interventions, optimize resource allocation for PrEP, and address structural inequities fueling HIV transmission.
title Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm for Spatiotemporal Forecasting of HIV Clusters
topic Machine Learning
Molecular Networks
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.00848