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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Villarreal, Joshua, Woodward, Julia, Hardin, John, Conrad, Janet
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.01153
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author Villarreal, Joshua
Woodward, Julia
Hardin, John
Conrad, Janet
author_facet Villarreal, Joshua
Woodward, Julia
Hardin, John
Conrad, Janet
contents A critical challenge in particle physics is combining results from diverse experimental setups that measure the same physical quantity to enhance precision and statistical power, a process known as a global fit. Global fits of sterile neutrino searches, hunts for additional neutrino oscillation frequencies and amplitudes, present an intriguing case study. In such a scenario, the key assumptions underlying Wilks' theorem, a cornerstone of most classic frequentist analyses, do not hold. The method of Feldman and Cousins, a trials-based approach which does not assume Wilks' theorem, becomes computationally prohibitive for complex or intractable likelihoods. To bypass this limitation, we borrow a technique from simulation-based inference (SBI) to estimate likelihood ratios for use in building trials-based confidence intervals, speeding up test statistic evaluations by a factor $>10^4$ per grid point, resulting in a faster, but approximate, frequentist fitting framework. Applied to a subset of sterile neutrino search data involving the disappearance of muon-flavor (anti)neutrinos, our method leverages machine learning to compute frequentist confidence intervals while significantly reducing computational expense. In addition, the SBI-based approach holds additional value by recognizing underlying systematic uncertainties that the Wilks approach does not. Thus, our method allows for more robust machine learning-based analyses critical to performing accurate but computationally feasible global fits. This allows, for the first time, a global fit to sterile neutrino data without assuming Wilks' theorem. While we demonstrate the utility of such a technique studying sterile neutrino searches, it is applicable to both single-experiment and global fits of all kinds.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2507_01153
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle A Frequentist Simulation-Based Inference Treatment of Sterile Neutrino Global Fits
Villarreal, Joshua
Woodward, Julia
Hardin, John
Conrad, Janet
High Energy Physics - Phenomenology
High Energy Physics - Experiment
A critical challenge in particle physics is combining results from diverse experimental setups that measure the same physical quantity to enhance precision and statistical power, a process known as a global fit. Global fits of sterile neutrino searches, hunts for additional neutrino oscillation frequencies and amplitudes, present an intriguing case study. In such a scenario, the key assumptions underlying Wilks' theorem, a cornerstone of most classic frequentist analyses, do not hold. The method of Feldman and Cousins, a trials-based approach which does not assume Wilks' theorem, becomes computationally prohibitive for complex or intractable likelihoods. To bypass this limitation, we borrow a technique from simulation-based inference (SBI) to estimate likelihood ratios for use in building trials-based confidence intervals, speeding up test statistic evaluations by a factor $>10^4$ per grid point, resulting in a faster, but approximate, frequentist fitting framework. Applied to a subset of sterile neutrino search data involving the disappearance of muon-flavor (anti)neutrinos, our method leverages machine learning to compute frequentist confidence intervals while significantly reducing computational expense. In addition, the SBI-based approach holds additional value by recognizing underlying systematic uncertainties that the Wilks approach does not. Thus, our method allows for more robust machine learning-based analyses critical to performing accurate but computationally feasible global fits. This allows, for the first time, a global fit to sterile neutrino data without assuming Wilks' theorem. While we demonstrate the utility of such a technique studying sterile neutrino searches, it is applicable to both single-experiment and global fits of all kinds.
title A Frequentist Simulation-Based Inference Treatment of Sterile Neutrino Global Fits
topic High Energy Physics - Phenomenology
High Energy Physics - Experiment
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.01153