Dealing with Uncertainty in Contextual Anomaly Detection

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Bindini, Luca, Perini, Lorenzo, Nistri, Stefano, Davis, Jesse, Frasconi, Paolo
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Bindini, Luca
Perini, Lorenzo
Nistri, Stefano
Davis, Jesse
Frasconi, Paolo
author_facet Bindini, Luca
Perini, Lorenzo
Nistri, Stefano
Davis, Jesse
Frasconi, Paolo
contents Contextual anomaly detection (CAD) aims to identify anomalies in a target (behavioral) variable conditioned on a set of contextual variables that influence the normalcy of the target variable but are not themselves indicators of anomaly. In many anomaly detection tasks, there exist contextual variables that influence the normalcy of the target variable but are not themselves indicators of anomaly. In this work, we propose a novel framework for CAD, normalcy score (NS), that explicitly models both the aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. Built on heteroscedastic Gaussian process regression, our method regards the Z-score as a random variable, providing confidence intervals that reflect the reliability of the anomaly assessment. Through experiments on benchmark datasets and a real-world application in cardiology, we demonstrate that NS outperforms state-of-the-art CAD methods in both detection accuracy and interpretability. Moreover, confidence intervals enable an adaptive, uncertainty-driven decision-making process, which may be very important in domains such as healthcare.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2507_04490
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Dealing with Uncertainty in Contextual Anomaly Detection
Bindini, Luca
Perini, Lorenzo
Nistri, Stefano
Davis, Jesse
Frasconi, Paolo
Machine Learning
Artificial Intelligence
Contextual anomaly detection (CAD) aims to identify anomalies in a target (behavioral) variable conditioned on a set of contextual variables that influence the normalcy of the target variable but are not themselves indicators of anomaly. In many anomaly detection tasks, there exist contextual variables that influence the normalcy of the target variable but are not themselves indicators of anomaly. In this work, we propose a novel framework for CAD, normalcy score (NS), that explicitly models both the aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. Built on heteroscedastic Gaussian process regression, our method regards the Z-score as a random variable, providing confidence intervals that reflect the reliability of the anomaly assessment. Through experiments on benchmark datasets and a real-world application in cardiology, we demonstrate that NS outperforms state-of-the-art CAD methods in both detection accuracy and interpretability. Moreover, confidence intervals enable an adaptive, uncertainty-driven decision-making process, which may be very important in domains such as healthcare.
title Dealing with Uncertainty in Contextual Anomaly Detection
topic Machine Learning
Artificial Intelligence
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.04490