Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.05048 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1866917231929065472 |
|---|---|
| author | Kim, Jung-Ho Yi, Sudo Gwak, Sang-Hwan Goh, K. -I. Lee, D. -S. |
| author_facet | Kim, Jung-Ho Yi, Sudo Gwak, Sang-Hwan Goh, K. -I. Lee, D. -S. |
| contents | To understand how fluctuations arise and are distributed in international trade, a question crucial for economic risk assessment and policymaking, we analyze strong adverse fluctuations-collapsed trades-defined as individual trades with sharp annual volume declines. Adopting a hypergraph framework for a fine-scale trade-centric representation of international trade, we find that collapsed trades (hyperedges) are clustered and their occurrence decays algebraically with trade volume (weight), which suggests inhomogeneous, epidemic-like spreading of collapse in the international trade hypergraph. Modeling collapse propagation as a contagion process and analyzing its dynamics, we show that a positive degree-weight correlation and a volume-decaying collapse rate synergistically suppress the onset of global collective collapse. Notably, the degree-weight correlation persisted but the volume-decay of the collapse rate weakened during the 2008-2009 global economic recession, resulting in a broader collapse spread. Our study shows how the interplay between structure and dynamics stabilizes complex systems. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2507_05048 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Structure and dynamics jointly stabilize the international trade hypergraph Kim, Jung-Ho Yi, Sudo Gwak, Sang-Hwan Goh, K. -I. Lee, D. -S. Physics and Society Disordered Systems and Neural Networks To understand how fluctuations arise and are distributed in international trade, a question crucial for economic risk assessment and policymaking, we analyze strong adverse fluctuations-collapsed trades-defined as individual trades with sharp annual volume declines. Adopting a hypergraph framework for a fine-scale trade-centric representation of international trade, we find that collapsed trades (hyperedges) are clustered and their occurrence decays algebraically with trade volume (weight), which suggests inhomogeneous, epidemic-like spreading of collapse in the international trade hypergraph. Modeling collapse propagation as a contagion process and analyzing its dynamics, we show that a positive degree-weight correlation and a volume-decaying collapse rate synergistically suppress the onset of global collective collapse. Notably, the degree-weight correlation persisted but the volume-decay of the collapse rate weakened during the 2008-2009 global economic recession, resulting in a broader collapse spread. Our study shows how the interplay between structure and dynamics stabilizes complex systems. |
| title | Structure and dynamics jointly stabilize the international trade hypergraph |
| topic | Physics and Society Disordered Systems and Neural Networks |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.05048 |