Conformal prediction for uncertainties in nucleon-nucleon scattering
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arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866912862347198464 |
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| author | Dezdarani, Habib Yousefi Curry, Ryan Gezerlis, Alexandros |
| author_facet | Dezdarani, Habib Yousefi Curry, Ryan Gezerlis, Alexandros |
| contents | Conformal prediction is a distribution-free and model-agnostic uncertainty-quantification method that provides finite-sample prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage. In this work, for the first time, we apply conformal-prediction to generate uncertainty bands for physical observables in nuclear physics, such as the total cross section and nucleon-nucleon phase shifts. We demonstrate the method's flexibility by considering three scenarios: (i) a pointwise model, where expansion coefficients in chiral effective field theory are treated as random variables; (ii) a Gaussian-process model for the coefficients; and (iii) phase shifts at various energies and partial waves calculated using local interactions from chiral effective field theory. In each case, conformal-prediction intervals are constructed and validated empirically. Our results show that conformal prediction provides reliable and adaptive uncertainty bands even in the presence of non-Gaussian behavior, such as skewness and heavy tails. These findings highlight conformal prediction as a robust and practical framework for quantifying theoretical uncertainties. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2507_08085 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Conformal prediction for uncertainties in nucleon-nucleon scattering Dezdarani, Habib Yousefi Curry, Ryan Gezerlis, Alexandros Nuclear Theory Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability Conformal prediction is a distribution-free and model-agnostic uncertainty-quantification method that provides finite-sample prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage. In this work, for the first time, we apply conformal-prediction to generate uncertainty bands for physical observables in nuclear physics, such as the total cross section and nucleon-nucleon phase shifts. We demonstrate the method's flexibility by considering three scenarios: (i) a pointwise model, where expansion coefficients in chiral effective field theory are treated as random variables; (ii) a Gaussian-process model for the coefficients; and (iii) phase shifts at various energies and partial waves calculated using local interactions from chiral effective field theory. In each case, conformal-prediction intervals are constructed and validated empirically. Our results show that conformal prediction provides reliable and adaptive uncertainty bands even in the presence of non-Gaussian behavior, such as skewness and heavy tails. These findings highlight conformal prediction as a robust and practical framework for quantifying theoretical uncertainties. |
| title | Conformal prediction for uncertainties in nucleon-nucleon scattering |
| topic | Nuclear Theory Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.08085 |