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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.13534 |
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| _version_ | 1866915469800243200 |
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| author | Semmelmann, Leo Scheidt, Frederik vom |
| author_facet | Semmelmann, Leo Scheidt, Frederik vom |
| contents | Intensifying heatwaves driven by climate change are accelerating the adoption of mobile air conditioning (AC) systems. A rapid mass adoption of such AC systems could create additional stress on electricity grids and the power system. This study presents a novel method to estimate the electricity demand from AC systems both at the system level and at high temporal and spatial granularity. We apply the method to a near-future heatwave scenario in Germany in which household AC adoption increases from the current 19% to 35% during a heatwave similar to the one of July 2025. We analyze the effects for 196,428 grid cells of one square kilometer across Germany, by combining weather data, census data, socio-demographic assumptions, mobility patterns, and temperature-dependent AC activation functions. We find that electricity demand of newly purchased mobile AC systems could increase the peak load by over 12.9 GW, with urban hot-spots reaching 5.2 MW per square kilometer. The temporal pattern creates a pronounced afternoon peak that coincides with lower photovoltaic generation, potentially exacerbating power system stability challenges. Our findings underscore the urgency for proactive energy system planning to manage emerging demand peaks. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2507_13534 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | The impact of heatwave-driven air conditioning adoption on electricity demand: A spatio-temporal case study for Germany Semmelmann, Leo Scheidt, Frederik vom Systems and Control Intensifying heatwaves driven by climate change are accelerating the adoption of mobile air conditioning (AC) systems. A rapid mass adoption of such AC systems could create additional stress on electricity grids and the power system. This study presents a novel method to estimate the electricity demand from AC systems both at the system level and at high temporal and spatial granularity. We apply the method to a near-future heatwave scenario in Germany in which household AC adoption increases from the current 19% to 35% during a heatwave similar to the one of July 2025. We analyze the effects for 196,428 grid cells of one square kilometer across Germany, by combining weather data, census data, socio-demographic assumptions, mobility patterns, and temperature-dependent AC activation functions. We find that electricity demand of newly purchased mobile AC systems could increase the peak load by over 12.9 GW, with urban hot-spots reaching 5.2 MW per square kilometer. The temporal pattern creates a pronounced afternoon peak that coincides with lower photovoltaic generation, potentially exacerbating power system stability challenges. Our findings underscore the urgency for proactive energy system planning to manage emerging demand peaks. |
| title | The impact of heatwave-driven air conditioning adoption on electricity demand: A spatio-temporal case study for Germany |
| topic | Systems and Control |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.13534 |