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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.16722 |
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| _version_ | 1866915405114638336 |
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| author | Arlotto, Alessandro Belloni, Alexandre Fang, Fei Pekeč, Saša |
| author_facet | Arlotto, Alessandro Belloni, Alexandre Fang, Fei Pekeč, Saša |
| contents | We use causal inference to study how designing ballots with and without party designations impacts electoral outcomes when partisan voters rely on party-order cues to infer candidate affiliation in races without designations. If the party orders of candidates in races with and without party designations differ, these voters might cast their votes incorrectly. We identify a quasi-randomized natural experiment with contest-level treatment assignment pertaining to North Carolina judicial elections and use double machine learning to accurately capture the magnitude of such incorrectly cast votes. Using precinct-level election and demographic data, we estimate that 11.8% (95% confidence interval: [4.0%, 19.6%]) of democratic partisan voters and 15.4% (95% confidence interval: [7.8%, 23.1%]) of republican partisan voters cast their votes incorrectly due to the difference in party orders. Our results indicate that ballots mixing contests with and without party designations mislead many voters, leading to outcomes that do not reflect true voter preferences. To accurately capture voter intent, such ballot designs should be avoided. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2507_16722 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Ballot Design and Electoral Outcomes: The Role of Candidate Order and Party Affiliation Arlotto, Alessandro Belloni, Alexandre Fang, Fei Pekeč, Saša Applications We use causal inference to study how designing ballots with and without party designations impacts electoral outcomes when partisan voters rely on party-order cues to infer candidate affiliation in races without designations. If the party orders of candidates in races with and without party designations differ, these voters might cast their votes incorrectly. We identify a quasi-randomized natural experiment with contest-level treatment assignment pertaining to North Carolina judicial elections and use double machine learning to accurately capture the magnitude of such incorrectly cast votes. Using precinct-level election and demographic data, we estimate that 11.8% (95% confidence interval: [4.0%, 19.6%]) of democratic partisan voters and 15.4% (95% confidence interval: [7.8%, 23.1%]) of republican partisan voters cast their votes incorrectly due to the difference in party orders. Our results indicate that ballots mixing contests with and without party designations mislead many voters, leading to outcomes that do not reflect true voter preferences. To accurately capture voter intent, such ballot designs should be avoided. |
| title | Ballot Design and Electoral Outcomes: The Role of Candidate Order and Party Affiliation |
| topic | Applications |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.16722 |