Time-to-Event Modeling with Pseudo-Observations in Federated Settings
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arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , , , , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866908878718894080 |
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| author | Jang, Hyojung Risk, Malcolm Wang, Yaojie Allen, Norrina Bai Shi, Xu Zhao, Lili |
| author_facet | Jang, Hyojung Risk, Malcolm Wang, Yaojie Allen, Norrina Bai Shi, Xu Zhao, Lili |
| contents | In multi-center clinical research, privacy regulations often prohibit pooling individual-level records, complicating the analysis of time-to-event data. Current federated survival methods frequently require iterative communication or rely strictly on proportional hazards (PH) assumptions or require sensitive survival information. We propose a one-shot federated framework using pseudo-observations derived from a sequentially updated Kaplan-Meier estimator and fitted via a renewable generalized estimating equation. Unlike traditional methods, our approach allows flexible link functions tailored to the target estimand and accommodates non-proportional hazards. To address site-level heterogeneity, we introduce a covariate-wise debiasing procedure that shrinks noise-driven local deviations toward the global estimate while preserving genuine site-specific effects. Simulation studies demonstrate that our framework achieves inferential accuracy comparable to pooled Cox regression and the privacy-preserving One-shot Distributed Algorithm to fit a multicenter Cox proportional hazards model (ODAC) under PH assumptions, while recovering time-varying coefficient trajectories when PH is violated. Furthermore, simulations confirm that the debiasing procedure optimizes the bias-variance trade-off, adaptively balancing global stability with the preservation of genuine site-specific deviations. Applied to pediatric obesity data from the Chicago Area Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Network (CAPriCORN) network ($N=45,865$), the model produced robust estimates of time-invariant and time-varying hazard ratios, offering a flexible, privacy-preserving alternative for collaborative survival research. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2507_20558 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Time-to-Event Modeling with Pseudo-Observations in Federated Settings Jang, Hyojung Risk, Malcolm Wang, Yaojie Allen, Norrina Bai Shi, Xu Zhao, Lili Applications In multi-center clinical research, privacy regulations often prohibit pooling individual-level records, complicating the analysis of time-to-event data. Current federated survival methods frequently require iterative communication or rely strictly on proportional hazards (PH) assumptions or require sensitive survival information. We propose a one-shot federated framework using pseudo-observations derived from a sequentially updated Kaplan-Meier estimator and fitted via a renewable generalized estimating equation. Unlike traditional methods, our approach allows flexible link functions tailored to the target estimand and accommodates non-proportional hazards. To address site-level heterogeneity, we introduce a covariate-wise debiasing procedure that shrinks noise-driven local deviations toward the global estimate while preserving genuine site-specific effects. Simulation studies demonstrate that our framework achieves inferential accuracy comparable to pooled Cox regression and the privacy-preserving One-shot Distributed Algorithm to fit a multicenter Cox proportional hazards model (ODAC) under PH assumptions, while recovering time-varying coefficient trajectories when PH is violated. Furthermore, simulations confirm that the debiasing procedure optimizes the bias-variance trade-off, adaptively balancing global stability with the preservation of genuine site-specific deviations. Applied to pediatric obesity data from the Chicago Area Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Network (CAPriCORN) network ($N=45,865$), the model produced robust estimates of time-invariant and time-varying hazard ratios, offering a flexible, privacy-preserving alternative for collaborative survival research. |
| title | Time-to-Event Modeling with Pseudo-Observations in Federated Settings |
| topic | Applications |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.20558 |