Slomads Rising: Stay Length Shifts in Digital Nomad Travel, United States 2019-2024
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arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866915501233405952 |
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| author | Katz, Harrison Savage, Erica |
| author_facet | Katz, Harrison Savage, Erica |
| contents | Using all U.S. Airbnb reservations created in 2019-2024 (booking-count weighted), we quantify pandemic-era shifts in nights per booking (NPB) and the mechanism behind them. The mean rose from 3.68 pre-COVID to 4.36 during restrictions and stabilized near 4.07 post-2021 (about 10% above 2019); the booking-weighted median moved from 2 to 3 nights. A two-parameter log-normal fits best by wide AIC/BIC margins, indicating heavy tails. A negative-binomial model with month effects implies post-vaccine bookings are 6.5% shorter than restriction-era bookings, while pre-COVID bookings are 16% shorter. In a two-part model at 28 nights, the booking share of month-plus stays rose from 1.43% (pre) to 2.72% (restriction) and settled at 2.04% (post); conditional means among long stays were about 55-60 nights. Thus the higher average reflects more long stays rather than longer long stays. A SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 with pandemic-phase dummies improves fit (LR=8.39, df=2, p=0.015), consistent with a structural level shift. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2507_21298 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Slomads Rising: Stay Length Shifts in Digital Nomad Travel, United States 2019-2024 Katz, Harrison Savage, Erica Statistical Finance Using all U.S. Airbnb reservations created in 2019-2024 (booking-count weighted), we quantify pandemic-era shifts in nights per booking (NPB) and the mechanism behind them. The mean rose from 3.68 pre-COVID to 4.36 during restrictions and stabilized near 4.07 post-2021 (about 10% above 2019); the booking-weighted median moved from 2 to 3 nights. A two-parameter log-normal fits best by wide AIC/BIC margins, indicating heavy tails. A negative-binomial model with month effects implies post-vaccine bookings are 6.5% shorter than restriction-era bookings, while pre-COVID bookings are 16% shorter. In a two-part model at 28 nights, the booking share of month-plus stays rose from 1.43% (pre) to 2.72% (restriction) and settled at 2.04% (post); conditional means among long stays were about 55-60 nights. Thus the higher average reflects more long stays rather than longer long stays. A SARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 with pandemic-phase dummies improves fit (LR=8.39, df=2, p=0.015), consistent with a structural level shift. |
| title | Slomads Rising: Stay Length Shifts in Digital Nomad Travel, United States 2019-2024 |
| topic | Statistical Finance |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.21298 |