Non-randomness of Japan megaquakes implied by stress recovery and accumulation
Fuente:
arXiv
Salvato in:
| Autori principali: | , , |
|---|---|
| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2025
|
| Soggetti: | |
| Accesso online: | |
| Tags: |
Aggiungi Tag
Nessun Tag, puoi essere il primo ad aggiungerne!!
|
| _version_ | 1866914308615569408 |
|---|---|
| author | Nanjo, K. Z. Hori, T. Iwata, D. |
| author_facet | Nanjo, K. Z. Hori, T. Iwata, D. |
| contents | Monitoring stress recovery and accumulation associated with megaquakes helps to assess their recurrence. Previous studies proposed a high likelihood of imminent recurrence for the 2011 Tohoku and the 17th-century Hokkaido megaquakes belonging to the magnitude-9 class, although their current stress state remains uncertain. Here we compare the occurrence of small earthquakes relative to larger ones, using b-values, showing high b-values in the source area of the Tohoku earthquake, indicating low stresses. In contrast, low b-values occurred in the source area of the 17th-century earthquake, indicating high stresses as seen before the Tohoku event. Around the low-b-value zone, phenomena that provide insight into subsequent large earthquakes are observed, and which were reported for worldwide earthquakes: seismic quiescence, a seismic gap, strong plate coupling, and slow earthquake activity avoiding megaquakes' rupture zones. Results imply that the Hokkaido and Tohoku megaquakes occur nonrandomly in time, rather their recurrence intervals are more characteristic. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2507_21478 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Non-randomness of Japan megaquakes implied by stress recovery and accumulation Nanjo, K. Z. Hori, T. Iwata, D. Geophysics Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems Monitoring stress recovery and accumulation associated with megaquakes helps to assess their recurrence. Previous studies proposed a high likelihood of imminent recurrence for the 2011 Tohoku and the 17th-century Hokkaido megaquakes belonging to the magnitude-9 class, although their current stress state remains uncertain. Here we compare the occurrence of small earthquakes relative to larger ones, using b-values, showing high b-values in the source area of the Tohoku earthquake, indicating low stresses. In contrast, low b-values occurred in the source area of the 17th-century earthquake, indicating high stresses as seen before the Tohoku event. Around the low-b-value zone, phenomena that provide insight into subsequent large earthquakes are observed, and which were reported for worldwide earthquakes: seismic quiescence, a seismic gap, strong plate coupling, and slow earthquake activity avoiding megaquakes' rupture zones. Results imply that the Hokkaido and Tohoku megaquakes occur nonrandomly in time, rather their recurrence intervals are more characteristic. |
| title | Non-randomness of Japan megaquakes implied by stress recovery and accumulation |
| topic | Geophysics Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.21478 |