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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Doran, Kevin, Baden, Tom
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
Subjects:
Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.21616
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author Doran, Kevin
Baden, Tom
author_facet Doran, Kevin
Baden, Tom
contents We demonstrate the effectiveness of the categorical distribution as a neural network output for next event prediction. This is done for both discrete-time and continuous-time event sequences. To model continuous-time processes, the categorical distribution is interpreted as a piecewise-constant density function and is shown to be competitive across a range of datasets. We then argue for the importance of studying discrete-time processes by introducing a neuronal spike prediction task motivated by retinal prosthetics, where discretization of event times is consequent on the task description. Separately, we show evidence that commonly used datasets favour smaller models. Finally, we introduce new synthetic datasets for testing larger models, as well as synthetic datasets with discrete event times.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2507_21616
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Categorical Distributions are Effective Neural Network Outputs for Event Prediction
Doran, Kevin
Baden, Tom
Machine Learning
We demonstrate the effectiveness of the categorical distribution as a neural network output for next event prediction. This is done for both discrete-time and continuous-time event sequences. To model continuous-time processes, the categorical distribution is interpreted as a piecewise-constant density function and is shown to be competitive across a range of datasets. We then argue for the importance of studying discrete-time processes by introducing a neuronal spike prediction task motivated by retinal prosthetics, where discretization of event times is consequent on the task description. Separately, we show evidence that commonly used datasets favour smaller models. Finally, we introduce new synthetic datasets for testing larger models, as well as synthetic datasets with discrete event times.
title Categorical Distributions are Effective Neural Network Outputs for Event Prediction
topic Machine Learning
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.21616