From Tracepoints to Timeliness: A Semi-Markov Framework for Predictive Runtime Analysis

Fuente: arXiv
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Autores principales: Bielmeier, Benno, Ramsauer, Ralf, Yoshida, Takahiro, Mauerer, Wolfgang
Formato: Preprint
Publicado: 2025
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author Bielmeier, Benno
Ramsauer, Ralf
Yoshida, Takahiro
Mauerer, Wolfgang
author_facet Bielmeier, Benno
Ramsauer, Ralf
Yoshida, Takahiro
Mauerer, Wolfgang
contents Detecting and resolving violations of temporal constraints in real-time systems is both, time-consuming and resource-intensive, particularly in complex software environments. Measurement-based approaches are widely used during development, but often are unable to deliver reliable predictions with limited data. This paper presents a hybrid method for worst-case execution time estimation, combining lightweight runtime tracing with probabilistic modelling. Timestamped system events are used to construct a semi-Markov chain, where transitions represent empirically observed timing between events. Execution duration is interpreted as time-to-absorption in the semi-Markov chain, enabling worst-case execution time estimation with fewer assumptions and reduced overhead. Empirical results from real-time Linux systems indicate that the method captures both regular and extreme timing behaviours accurately, even from short observation periods. The model supports holistic, low-intrusion analysis across system layers and remains interpretable and adaptable for practical use.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2507_22645
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle From Tracepoints to Timeliness: A Semi-Markov Framework for Predictive Runtime Analysis
Bielmeier, Benno
Ramsauer, Ralf
Yoshida, Takahiro
Mauerer, Wolfgang
Operating Systems
Detecting and resolving violations of temporal constraints in real-time systems is both, time-consuming and resource-intensive, particularly in complex software environments. Measurement-based approaches are widely used during development, but often are unable to deliver reliable predictions with limited data. This paper presents a hybrid method for worst-case execution time estimation, combining lightweight runtime tracing with probabilistic modelling. Timestamped system events are used to construct a semi-Markov chain, where transitions represent empirically observed timing between events. Execution duration is interpreted as time-to-absorption in the semi-Markov chain, enabling worst-case execution time estimation with fewer assumptions and reduced overhead. Empirical results from real-time Linux systems indicate that the method captures both regular and extreme timing behaviours accurately, even from short observation periods. The model supports holistic, low-intrusion analysis across system layers and remains interpretable and adaptable for practical use.
title From Tracepoints to Timeliness: A Semi-Markov Framework for Predictive Runtime Analysis
topic Operating Systems
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.22645