Frugal, Flexible, Faithful: Causal Data Simulation via Frengression

Fuente: arXiv
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Autores principales: Yang, Linying, Evans, Robin J., Shen, Xinwei
Formato: Preprint
Publicado: 2025
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author Yang, Linying
Evans, Robin J.
Shen, Xinwei
author_facet Yang, Linying
Evans, Robin J.
Shen, Xinwei
contents Machine learning has revitalized causal inference by combining flexible models and principled estimators, yet robust benchmarking and evaluation remain challenging with real-world data. In this work, we introduce frengression, a deep generative realization of the frugal parameterization that models the joint distribution of covariates, treatments and outcomes around the causal margin of interest. Frengression provides accurate estimation and flexible, faithful simulation of multivariate, time-varying data; it also enables direct sampling from user-specified interventional distributions. Model consistency and extrapolation guarantees are established, with validation on real-world clinical trial data demonstrating frengression's practical utility. We envision this framework sparking new research into generative approaches for causal margin modelling.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2508_01018
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Frugal, Flexible, Faithful: Causal Data Simulation via Frengression
Yang, Linying
Evans, Robin J.
Shen, Xinwei
Methodology
Machine Learning
Machine learning has revitalized causal inference by combining flexible models and principled estimators, yet robust benchmarking and evaluation remain challenging with real-world data. In this work, we introduce frengression, a deep generative realization of the frugal parameterization that models the joint distribution of covariates, treatments and outcomes around the causal margin of interest. Frengression provides accurate estimation and flexible, faithful simulation of multivariate, time-varying data; it also enables direct sampling from user-specified interventional distributions. Model consistency and extrapolation guarantees are established, with validation on real-world clinical trial data demonstrating frengression's practical utility. We envision this framework sparking new research into generative approaches for causal margin modelling.
title Frugal, Flexible, Faithful: Causal Data Simulation via Frengression
topic Methodology
Machine Learning
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.01018