Multi-Treatment-DML: Causal Estimation for Multi-Dimensional Continuous Treatments with Monotonicity Constraints in Personal Loan Risk Optimization
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arXiv
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| Auteurs principaux: | , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Publié: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866915436614909952 |
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| author | Zhao, Kexin Wang, Bo Zhao, Cuiying Wan, Tongyao |
| author_facet | Zhao, Kexin Wang, Bo Zhao, Cuiying Wan, Tongyao |
| contents | Optimizing credit limits, interest rates, and loan terms is crucial for managing borrower risk and lifetime value (LTV) in personal loan platform. However, counterfactual estimation of these continuous, multi-dimensional treatments faces significant challenges: randomized trials are often prohibited by risk controls and long repayment cycles, forcing reliance on biased observational data. Existing causal methods primarily handle binary/discrete treatments and struggle with continuous, multi-dimensional settings. Furthermore, financial domain knowledge mandates provably monotonic treatment-outcome relationships (e.g., risk increases with credit limit).To address these gaps, we propose Multi-Treatment-DML, a novel framework leveraging Double Machine Learning (DML) to: (i) debias observational data for causal effect estimation; (ii) handle arbitrary-dimensional continuous treatments; and (iii) enforce monotonic constraints between treatments and outcomes, guaranteeing adherence to domain requirements.Extensive experiments on public benchmarks and real-world industrial datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Furthermore, online A/B testing conducted on a realworld personal loan platform, confirms the practical superiority of Multi-Treatment-DML in real-world loan operations. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2508_02183 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Multi-Treatment-DML: Causal Estimation for Multi-Dimensional Continuous Treatments with Monotonicity Constraints in Personal Loan Risk Optimization Zhao, Kexin Wang, Bo Zhao, Cuiying Wan, Tongyao Machine Learning Optimizing credit limits, interest rates, and loan terms is crucial for managing borrower risk and lifetime value (LTV) in personal loan platform. However, counterfactual estimation of these continuous, multi-dimensional treatments faces significant challenges: randomized trials are often prohibited by risk controls and long repayment cycles, forcing reliance on biased observational data. Existing causal methods primarily handle binary/discrete treatments and struggle with continuous, multi-dimensional settings. Furthermore, financial domain knowledge mandates provably monotonic treatment-outcome relationships (e.g., risk increases with credit limit).To address these gaps, we propose Multi-Treatment-DML, a novel framework leveraging Double Machine Learning (DML) to: (i) debias observational data for causal effect estimation; (ii) handle arbitrary-dimensional continuous treatments; and (iii) enforce monotonic constraints between treatments and outcomes, guaranteeing adherence to domain requirements.Extensive experiments on public benchmarks and real-world industrial datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Furthermore, online A/B testing conducted on a realworld personal loan platform, confirms the practical superiority of Multi-Treatment-DML in real-world loan operations. |
| title | Multi-Treatment-DML: Causal Estimation for Multi-Dimensional Continuous Treatments with Monotonicity Constraints in Personal Loan Risk Optimization |
| topic | Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.02183 |