Trustworthy scientific inference with generative models
Fuente:
arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , , , , , , , , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2025
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| Soggetti: | |
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| author | Carzon, James Masserano, Luca Ingram, Joshua D. Shen, Alex Junior, Antonio Carlos Herling Ribeiro Dorigo, Tommaso Doro, Michele Speagle, Joshua S. Izbicki, Rafael Lee, Ann B. |
| author_facet | Carzon, James Masserano, Luca Ingram, Joshua D. Shen, Alex Junior, Antonio Carlos Herling Ribeiro Dorigo, Tommaso Doro, Michele Speagle, Joshua S. Izbicki, Rafael Lee, Ann B. |
| contents | Generative artificial intelligence (AI) excels at producing complex data structures (text, images, videos) by learning patterns from training examples. Across scientific disciplines, researchers are now applying generative models to "inverse problems" to directly predict hidden parameters from observed data along with measures of uncertainty. While these predictive or posterior-based methods can handle intractable likelihoods and large-scale studies, they can also produce biased or overconfident conclusions even without model misspecifications. We present a solution with Frequentist-Bayes (FreB), a mathematically rigorous protocol that reshapes AI-generated posterior probability distributions into (locally valid) confidence regions that consistently include true parameters with the expected probability, while achieving minimum size when training and target data align. We demonstrate FreB's effectiveness by tackling diverse case studies in the physical sciences: identifying unknown sources under dataset shift, reconciling competing theoretical models, and mitigating selection bias and systematics in observational studies. By providing validity guarantees with interpretable diagnostics, FreB enables trustworthy scientific inference across fields where direct likelihood evaluation remains impossible or prohibitively expensive. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2508_02602 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Trustworthy scientific inference with generative models Carzon, James Masserano, Luca Ingram, Joshua D. Shen, Alex Junior, Antonio Carlos Herling Ribeiro Dorigo, Tommaso Doro, Michele Speagle, Joshua S. Izbicki, Rafael Lee, Ann B. Machine Learning Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics Applications Methodology Generative artificial intelligence (AI) excels at producing complex data structures (text, images, videos) by learning patterns from training examples. Across scientific disciplines, researchers are now applying generative models to "inverse problems" to directly predict hidden parameters from observed data along with measures of uncertainty. While these predictive or posterior-based methods can handle intractable likelihoods and large-scale studies, they can also produce biased or overconfident conclusions even without model misspecifications. We present a solution with Frequentist-Bayes (FreB), a mathematically rigorous protocol that reshapes AI-generated posterior probability distributions into (locally valid) confidence regions that consistently include true parameters with the expected probability, while achieving minimum size when training and target data align. We demonstrate FreB's effectiveness by tackling diverse case studies in the physical sciences: identifying unknown sources under dataset shift, reconciling competing theoretical models, and mitigating selection bias and systematics in observational studies. By providing validity guarantees with interpretable diagnostics, FreB enables trustworthy scientific inference across fields where direct likelihood evaluation remains impossible or prohibitively expensive. |
| title | Trustworthy scientific inference with generative models |
| topic | Machine Learning Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics Applications Methodology |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.02602 |