Supervised Dynamic Dimension Reduction with Deep Neural Network
Fuente:
arXiv
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| Autores principales: | , , |
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866912725796388864 |
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| author | Luo, Zhanye Han, Yuefeng Yu, Xiufan |
| author_facet | Luo, Zhanye Han, Yuefeng Yu, Xiufan |
| contents | This paper studies the problem of dimension reduction, tailored to improving time series forecasting with high-dimensional predictors. We propose a novel Supervised Deep Dynamic Principal component analysis (SDDP) framework that incorporates the target variable and lagged observations into the factor extraction process. Assisted by a temporal neural network, we construct target-aware predictors by scaling the original predictors in a supervised manner, with larger weights assigned to predictors with stronger forecasting power. A principal component analysis is then performed on the target-aware predictors to extract the estimated SDDP factors. This supervised factor extraction not only improves predictive accuracy in the downstream forecasting task but also yields more interpretable and target-specific latent factors. Building upon SDDP, we propose a factor-augmented nonlinear dynamic forecasting model that unifies a broad family of factor-model-based forecasting approaches. To further demonstrate the broader applicability of SDDP, we extend our studies to a more challenging scenario when the predictors are only partially observable. We validate the empirical performance of the proposed method on several real-world public datasets. The results show that our algorithm achieves notable improvements in forecasting accuracy compared to state-of-the-art methods. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2508_03546 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Supervised Dynamic Dimension Reduction with Deep Neural Network Luo, Zhanye Han, Yuefeng Yu, Xiufan Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence This paper studies the problem of dimension reduction, tailored to improving time series forecasting with high-dimensional predictors. We propose a novel Supervised Deep Dynamic Principal component analysis (SDDP) framework that incorporates the target variable and lagged observations into the factor extraction process. Assisted by a temporal neural network, we construct target-aware predictors by scaling the original predictors in a supervised manner, with larger weights assigned to predictors with stronger forecasting power. A principal component analysis is then performed on the target-aware predictors to extract the estimated SDDP factors. This supervised factor extraction not only improves predictive accuracy in the downstream forecasting task but also yields more interpretable and target-specific latent factors. Building upon SDDP, we propose a factor-augmented nonlinear dynamic forecasting model that unifies a broad family of factor-model-based forecasting approaches. To further demonstrate the broader applicability of SDDP, we extend our studies to a more challenging scenario when the predictors are only partially observable. We validate the empirical performance of the proposed method on several real-world public datasets. The results show that our algorithm achieves notable improvements in forecasting accuracy compared to state-of-the-art methods. |
| title | Supervised Dynamic Dimension Reduction with Deep Neural Network |
| topic | Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.03546 |