PriceFM: Foundation Model for Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting
Fuente:
arXiv
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Preprint |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2025
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | |
| Tags: |
Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
|
| _version_ | 1866915994508722176 |
|---|---|
| author | Yu, Runyao Gu, Chenhui Stiasny, Jochen Wen, Qingsong Dilov, Wasim Sarwar Qi, Lianlian Cremer, Jochen L. |
| author_facet | Yu, Runyao Gu, Chenhui Stiasny, Jochen Wen, Qingsong Dilov, Wasim Sarwar Qi, Lianlian Cremer, Jochen L. |
| contents | Electricity price forecasting in Europe presents unique challenges due to increasing renewable generation variability, market integration, and the continent's physically interconnected power system. While recent advances in foundation models have led to substantial improvements in general time series forecasting, most existing approaches do not incorporate prior graph knowledge from the transmission topology, which can limit their ability to exploit meaningful cross-region dependencies in interconnected power systems, motivating a domain-specific foundation model. In this paper, we address this gap by first introducing a comprehensive and up-to-date dataset across 24 European countries (38 regions), spanning from 2022-01-01 to 2026-01-01. Building on this groundwork, we propose PriceFM, a probabilistic foundation model pretrained on this large dataset. Specifically, PriceFM maps each region's price and exogenous features, including load, solar, and wind generation forecasts, into a comparable latent embedding via a shared Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) projection layer, then injects prior graph knowledge by constructing a sparse graph mask derived from transmission topology. Across a large-scale European benchmark, PriceFM achieves strong performance and demonstrates superior generalization compared with multiple competitive baselines. The results highlight the value of topology-guided forecasting with increasing renewable generation and strong cross-border interconnections. The methodology is available at: https://runyao-yu.github.io/PriceFM/. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2508_04875 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | PriceFM: Foundation Model for Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting Yu, Runyao Gu, Chenhui Stiasny, Jochen Wen, Qingsong Dilov, Wasim Sarwar Qi, Lianlian Cremer, Jochen L. Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science Electricity price forecasting in Europe presents unique challenges due to increasing renewable generation variability, market integration, and the continent's physically interconnected power system. While recent advances in foundation models have led to substantial improvements in general time series forecasting, most existing approaches do not incorporate prior graph knowledge from the transmission topology, which can limit their ability to exploit meaningful cross-region dependencies in interconnected power systems, motivating a domain-specific foundation model. In this paper, we address this gap by first introducing a comprehensive and up-to-date dataset across 24 European countries (38 regions), spanning from 2022-01-01 to 2026-01-01. Building on this groundwork, we propose PriceFM, a probabilistic foundation model pretrained on this large dataset. Specifically, PriceFM maps each region's price and exogenous features, including load, solar, and wind generation forecasts, into a comparable latent embedding via a shared Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) projection layer, then injects prior graph knowledge by constructing a sparse graph mask derived from transmission topology. Across a large-scale European benchmark, PriceFM achieves strong performance and demonstrates superior generalization compared with multiple competitive baselines. The results highlight the value of topology-guided forecasting with increasing renewable generation and strong cross-border interconnections. The methodology is available at: https://runyao-yu.github.io/PriceFM/. |
| title | PriceFM: Foundation Model for Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting |
| topic | Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.04875 |