Preparing for the worst: Long-term and short-term weather extremes in resource adequacy assessment
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arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866908480962560000 |
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| author | Grochowicz, Aleksander Bloomfield, Hannah C. Victoria, Marta |
| author_facet | Grochowicz, Aleksander Bloomfield, Hannah C. Victoria, Marta |
| contents | Security of supply is a common and important concern when integrating renewables in net-zero power systems. Extreme weather affects both demand and supply leading to power system stress; in Europe this stress spreads continentally beyond the meteorological root cause. We use an approach based on shadow prices to identify periods of elevated stress called system-defining events and analyse their impact on the power system. By classifying different types of system-defining events, we identify challenges to power system operation and planning. Crucially, we find the need for sufficient resilience back-up (power) capacities whose financial viability is precarious due to weather variability. Furthermore, we disentangle short- and long-term resilience challenges with distinct metrics and stress tests to incorporate both into future energy modelling assessments. Our methodology and implementation in the open model PyPSA-Eur can be re-applied to other systems and help researchers and policymakers in building more resilient and adequate energy systems. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2508_05163 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Preparing for the worst: Long-term and short-term weather extremes in resource adequacy assessment Grochowicz, Aleksander Bloomfield, Hannah C. Victoria, Marta Systems and Control Optimization and Control Security of supply is a common and important concern when integrating renewables in net-zero power systems. Extreme weather affects both demand and supply leading to power system stress; in Europe this stress spreads continentally beyond the meteorological root cause. We use an approach based on shadow prices to identify periods of elevated stress called system-defining events and analyse their impact on the power system. By classifying different types of system-defining events, we identify challenges to power system operation and planning. Crucially, we find the need for sufficient resilience back-up (power) capacities whose financial viability is precarious due to weather variability. Furthermore, we disentangle short- and long-term resilience challenges with distinct metrics and stress tests to incorporate both into future energy modelling assessments. Our methodology and implementation in the open model PyPSA-Eur can be re-applied to other systems and help researchers and policymakers in building more resilient and adequate energy systems. |
| title | Preparing for the worst: Long-term and short-term weather extremes in resource adequacy assessment |
| topic | Systems and Control Optimization and Control |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.05163 |