Echo State Networks for Bitcoin Time Series Prediction
Fuente:
arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866915433805774848 |
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| author | Sharma, Mansi Sartor, Enrico Cavazza, Marc Prendinger, Helmut |
| author_facet | Sharma, Mansi Sartor, Enrico Cavazza, Marc Prendinger, Helmut |
| contents | Forecasting stock and cryptocurrency prices is challenging due to high volatility and non-stationarity, influenced by factors like economic changes and market sentiment. Previous research shows that Echo State Networks (ESNs) can effectively model short-term stock market movements, capturing nonlinear patterns in dynamic data. To the best of our knowledge, this work is among the first to explore ESNs for cryptocurrency forecasting, especially during extreme volatility. We also conduct chaos analysis through the Lyapunov exponent in chaotic periods and show that our approach outperforms existing machine learning methods by a significant margin. Our findings are consistent with the Lyapunov exponent analysis, showing that ESNs are robust during chaotic periods and excel under high chaos compared to Boosting and Naïve methods. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2508_05416 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Echo State Networks for Bitcoin Time Series Prediction Sharma, Mansi Sartor, Enrico Cavazza, Marc Prendinger, Helmut Machine Learning Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science Neural and Evolutionary Computing Forecasting stock and cryptocurrency prices is challenging due to high volatility and non-stationarity, influenced by factors like economic changes and market sentiment. Previous research shows that Echo State Networks (ESNs) can effectively model short-term stock market movements, capturing nonlinear patterns in dynamic data. To the best of our knowledge, this work is among the first to explore ESNs for cryptocurrency forecasting, especially during extreme volatility. We also conduct chaos analysis through the Lyapunov exponent in chaotic periods and show that our approach outperforms existing machine learning methods by a significant margin. Our findings are consistent with the Lyapunov exponent analysis, showing that ESNs are robust during chaotic periods and excel under high chaos compared to Boosting and Naïve methods. |
| title | Echo State Networks for Bitcoin Time Series Prediction |
| topic | Machine Learning Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science Neural and Evolutionary Computing |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.05416 |