Fiscal Spillovers through Informal Financial Channels

Fuente: arXiv
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Autor principal: Kennedy, Austin
Formato: Preprint
Publicado: 2025
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author Kennedy, Austin
author_facet Kennedy, Austin
contents This paper examines fiscal policy spillovers through informal international financial channels, using the US stimulus checks as a positive, sudden, and direct fiscal shock. I utilize granular, transaction-level cryptocurrency data combined with an algorithm to probabilistically identify cross-border "crypto vehicle" transactions to construct bilateral cryptocurrency flows between countries. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, I compare cryptocurrency outflows between the US and other high-income countries and find a sharp but temporary increase in cryptocurrency outflows as a result of the direct stimulus. I quantify the fiscal spillover relative to expenditure and place an upper bound of 2.52% through this channel. This implies that fiscal spillovers through remittance channels are likely modest in size.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2508_06662
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Fiscal Spillovers through Informal Financial Channels
Kennedy, Austin
General Economics
Economics
This paper examines fiscal policy spillovers through informal international financial channels, using the US stimulus checks as a positive, sudden, and direct fiscal shock. I utilize granular, transaction-level cryptocurrency data combined with an algorithm to probabilistically identify cross-border "crypto vehicle" transactions to construct bilateral cryptocurrency flows between countries. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, I compare cryptocurrency outflows between the US and other high-income countries and find a sharp but temporary increase in cryptocurrency outflows as a result of the direct stimulus. I quantify the fiscal spillover relative to expenditure and place an upper bound of 2.52% through this channel. This implies that fiscal spillovers through remittance channels are likely modest in size.
title Fiscal Spillovers through Informal Financial Channels
topic General Economics
Economics
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.06662