Fiscal Spillovers through Informal Financial Channels
Fuente:
arXiv
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| Autor principal: | |
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| Formato: | Preprint |
| Publicado: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866916889846874112 |
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| author | Kennedy, Austin |
| author_facet | Kennedy, Austin |
| contents | This paper examines fiscal policy spillovers through informal international financial channels, using the US stimulus checks as a positive, sudden, and direct fiscal shock. I utilize granular, transaction-level cryptocurrency data combined with an algorithm to probabilistically identify cross-border "crypto vehicle" transactions to construct bilateral cryptocurrency flows between countries. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, I compare cryptocurrency outflows between the US and other high-income countries and find a sharp but temporary increase in cryptocurrency outflows as a result of the direct stimulus. I quantify the fiscal spillover relative to expenditure and place an upper bound of 2.52% through this channel. This implies that fiscal spillovers through remittance channels are likely modest in size. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2508_06662 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Fiscal Spillovers through Informal Financial Channels Kennedy, Austin General Economics Economics This paper examines fiscal policy spillovers through informal international financial channels, using the US stimulus checks as a positive, sudden, and direct fiscal shock. I utilize granular, transaction-level cryptocurrency data combined with an algorithm to probabilistically identify cross-border "crypto vehicle" transactions to construct bilateral cryptocurrency flows between countries. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, I compare cryptocurrency outflows between the US and other high-income countries and find a sharp but temporary increase in cryptocurrency outflows as a result of the direct stimulus. I quantify the fiscal spillover relative to expenditure and place an upper bound of 2.52% through this channel. This implies that fiscal spillovers through remittance channels are likely modest in size. |
| title | Fiscal Spillovers through Informal Financial Channels |
| topic | General Economics Economics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.06662 |