Conceptual winsorizing: An application to the social cost of carbon

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Author: Tol, Richard S. J.
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Tol, Richard S. J.
author_facet Tol, Richard S. J.
contents There are many published estimates of the social cost of carbon. Some are clear outliers, the result of poorly constrained models. Percentile winsorizing is an option, but I here propose conceptual winsorizing: The social cost of carbon is either a willingness to pay, which cannot exceed the ability to pay, or a proposed carbon tax, which cannot raise more revenue than all other taxes combined. Conceptual winsorizing successfully removes high outliers. It slackens as economies decarbonize, slowly without climate policy, faster with.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2508_07384
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Conceptual winsorizing: An application to the social cost of carbon
Tol, Richard S. J.
Econometrics
There are many published estimates of the social cost of carbon. Some are clear outliers, the result of poorly constrained models. Percentile winsorizing is an option, but I here propose conceptual winsorizing: The social cost of carbon is either a willingness to pay, which cannot exceed the ability to pay, or a proposed carbon tax, which cannot raise more revenue than all other taxes combined. Conceptual winsorizing successfully removes high outliers. It slackens as economies decarbonize, slowly without climate policy, faster with.
title Conceptual winsorizing: An application to the social cost of carbon
topic Econometrics
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.07384