A mathematical model of HPAI transmission between dairy cattle and wild birds with environmental effects
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arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866911109058920448 |
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| author | Fatoyinbo, H. O. Tiwari, P. Olanipekun, P. O. Ghosh, I. |
| author_facet | Fatoyinbo, H. O. Tiwari, P. Olanipekun, P. O. Ghosh, I. |
| contents | Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), especially the H5N1 strain, remains a major threat to animal health, food security, and public health. Recent spillover events in dairy cattle in the United States, linked to wild birds, highlight the critical importance of understanding transmission pathways at the cattle--wild bird--environment interface. In this work, we formulate and analyze a deterministic compartmental model that captures the transmission of HPAI between dairy cattle and wild birds, incorporating both direct and indirect (environmental) routes. The model combines an $SEIR$ framework for cattle with an $SIR$ structure for wild birds, coupled through an environmental compartment. We derive the basic reproduction number, $\mathcal{R}_{0}$, using the next-generation matrix approach, decomposing it into cattle-to-cattle, bird-to-bird, and environmental contributions. Qualitative analysis establishes positivity, boundedness, and global stability of equilibria through Lyapunov functions. Numerical simulations confirm the results of the theoretical analyses, illustrating outbreak trajectories, extinction thresholds, and persistence dynamics. A global sensitivity analysis, based on Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficients, identifies key parameters, particularly transmission among cattle, environmental contamination, and recovery rate as critical drivers of epidemic outcomes. Our results show that disease elimination is achievable when $\mathcal{R}_{0} < 1$, while persistence is inevitable for $\mathcal{R}_{0} > 1$. These findings provide a comprehensive mathematical framework for assessing HPAI risks and offer guidance for biosecurity strategies aimed at mitigating spillover and controlling outbreaks in livestock populations. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2508_12201 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | A mathematical model of HPAI transmission between dairy cattle and wild birds with environmental effects Fatoyinbo, H. O. Tiwari, P. Olanipekun, P. O. Ghosh, I. Populations and Evolution Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), especially the H5N1 strain, remains a major threat to animal health, food security, and public health. Recent spillover events in dairy cattle in the United States, linked to wild birds, highlight the critical importance of understanding transmission pathways at the cattle--wild bird--environment interface. In this work, we formulate and analyze a deterministic compartmental model that captures the transmission of HPAI between dairy cattle and wild birds, incorporating both direct and indirect (environmental) routes. The model combines an $SEIR$ framework for cattle with an $SIR$ structure for wild birds, coupled through an environmental compartment. We derive the basic reproduction number, $\mathcal{R}_{0}$, using the next-generation matrix approach, decomposing it into cattle-to-cattle, bird-to-bird, and environmental contributions. Qualitative analysis establishes positivity, boundedness, and global stability of equilibria through Lyapunov functions. Numerical simulations confirm the results of the theoretical analyses, illustrating outbreak trajectories, extinction thresholds, and persistence dynamics. A global sensitivity analysis, based on Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficients, identifies key parameters, particularly transmission among cattle, environmental contamination, and recovery rate as critical drivers of epidemic outcomes. Our results show that disease elimination is achievable when $\mathcal{R}_{0} < 1$, while persistence is inevitable for $\mathcal{R}_{0} > 1$. These findings provide a comprehensive mathematical framework for assessing HPAI risks and offer guidance for biosecurity strategies aimed at mitigating spillover and controlling outbreaks in livestock populations. |
| title | A mathematical model of HPAI transmission between dairy cattle and wild birds with environmental effects |
| topic | Populations and Evolution |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.12201 |