Dynamic Forcing Behind Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Lidia
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arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , , , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2025
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| author | López-Reyes, Mauricio Martín-Pérez, M. L. Calvo-Sancho, C. González-Alemán, J. J. |
| author_facet | López-Reyes, Mauricio Martín-Pérez, M. L. Calvo-Sancho, C. González-Alemán, J. J. |
| contents | This study examines Hurricane Lidia rapid intensification (RI) in the understudied northeastern Pacific, focusing on its interaction with an upper-level trough. Using IFS-ECMWF ensemble forecasts and ERA5 reanalysis, we analyze the large-scale dynamical mechanisms driving Lidias intensification. Results show that the trough played a crucial role in promoting RI by enhancing synoptic-scale ascent, upper-level divergence, and eddy flux convergence. In the higher-intensification ensemble group, stronger Trenberth forcing emerged prior to RI onset, suggesting a causative role in preconditioning the storm environment. This dynamical forcing likely triggered latent heat release, which in turn modified the upper-level potential vorticity structure and contributed to a subsequent reduction in vertical wind shear. In contrast, the lower-intensification group exhibited weaker forcing, higher shear, and a lack of sustained ventilation. These findings highlight the importance of diagnosing early dynamical triggers for RI, particularly in regions where operational access to high-resolution models is limited. This approach provides a cost-effective framework for anticipating RI using ensemble-based diagnostics and could serve as a valuable forecasting tool in data-sparse areas such as the Pacific coast of Mexico. Future studies should combine this large-scale methodology with high-resolution simulations to better capture storm-scale processes and validate multi-scale interactions in RI events. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2508_12481 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Dynamic Forcing Behind Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Lidia López-Reyes, Mauricio Martín-Pérez, M. L. Calvo-Sancho, C. González-Alemán, J. J. Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Fluid Dynamics This study examines Hurricane Lidia rapid intensification (RI) in the understudied northeastern Pacific, focusing on its interaction with an upper-level trough. Using IFS-ECMWF ensemble forecasts and ERA5 reanalysis, we analyze the large-scale dynamical mechanisms driving Lidias intensification. Results show that the trough played a crucial role in promoting RI by enhancing synoptic-scale ascent, upper-level divergence, and eddy flux convergence. In the higher-intensification ensemble group, stronger Trenberth forcing emerged prior to RI onset, suggesting a causative role in preconditioning the storm environment. This dynamical forcing likely triggered latent heat release, which in turn modified the upper-level potential vorticity structure and contributed to a subsequent reduction in vertical wind shear. In contrast, the lower-intensification group exhibited weaker forcing, higher shear, and a lack of sustained ventilation. These findings highlight the importance of diagnosing early dynamical triggers for RI, particularly in regions where operational access to high-resolution models is limited. This approach provides a cost-effective framework for anticipating RI using ensemble-based diagnostics and could serve as a valuable forecasting tool in data-sparse areas such as the Pacific coast of Mexico. Future studies should combine this large-scale methodology with high-resolution simulations to better capture storm-scale processes and validate multi-scale interactions in RI events. |
| title | Dynamic Forcing Behind Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Lidia |
| topic | Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Fluid Dynamics |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.12481 |