Reasonable uncertainty: Confidence intervals in empirical Bayes discrimination detection
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arXiv
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| Hauptverfasser: | , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866908493205733376 |
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| author | Gu, Jiaying Ignatiadis, Nikolaos Shaikh, Azeem M. |
| author_facet | Gu, Jiaying Ignatiadis, Nikolaos Shaikh, Azeem M. |
| contents | We revisit empirical Bayes discrimination detection, focusing on uncertainty arising from both partial identification and sampling variability. While prior work has mostly focused on partial identification, we find that some empirical findings are not robust to sampling uncertainty. To better connect statistical evidence to the magnitude of real-world discriminatory behavior, we propose a counterfactual odds-ratio estimand with a attractive properties and interpretation. Our analysis reveals the importance of careful attention to uncertainty quantification and downstream goals in empirical Bayes analyses. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2508_13110 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Reasonable uncertainty: Confidence intervals in empirical Bayes discrimination detection Gu, Jiaying Ignatiadis, Nikolaos Shaikh, Azeem M. Econometrics Methodology We revisit empirical Bayes discrimination detection, focusing on uncertainty arising from both partial identification and sampling variability. While prior work has mostly focused on partial identification, we find that some empirical findings are not robust to sampling uncertainty. To better connect statistical evidence to the magnitude of real-world discriminatory behavior, we propose a counterfactual odds-ratio estimand with a attractive properties and interpretation. Our analysis reveals the importance of careful attention to uncertainty quantification and downstream goals in empirical Bayes analyses. |
| title | Reasonable uncertainty: Confidence intervals in empirical Bayes discrimination detection |
| topic | Econometrics Methodology |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.13110 |