Exact Shapley Attributions in Quadratic-time for FANOVA Gaussian Processes

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Mohammadi, Majid, Muandet, Krikamol, Tiddi, Ilaria, Teije, Annette Ten, Chau, Siu Lun
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Mohammadi, Majid
Muandet, Krikamol
Tiddi, Ilaria
Teije, Annette Ten
Chau, Siu Lun
author_facet Mohammadi, Majid
Muandet, Krikamol
Tiddi, Ilaria
Teije, Annette Ten
Chau, Siu Lun
contents Shapley values are widely recognized as a principled method for attributing importance to input features in machine learning. However, the exact computation of Shapley values scales exponentially with the number of features, severely limiting the practical application of this powerful approach. The challenge is further compounded when the predictive model is probabilistic - as in Gaussian processes (GPs) - where the outputs are random variables rather than point estimates, necessitating additional computational effort in modeling higher-order moments. In this work, we demonstrate that for an important class of GPs known as FANOVA GP, which explicitly models all main effects and interactions, *exact* Shapley attributions for both local and global explanations can be computed in *quadratic time*. For local, instance-wise explanations, we define a stochastic cooperative game over function components and compute the exact stochastic Shapley value in quadratic time only, capturing both the expected contribution and uncertainty. For global explanations, we introduce a deterministic, variance-based value function and compute exact Shapley values that quantify each feature's contribution to the model's overall sensitivity. Our methods leverage a closed-form (stochastic) Möbius representation of the FANOVA decomposition and introduce recursive algorithms, inspired by Newton's identities, to efficiently compute the mean and variance of Shapley values. Our work enhances the utility of explainable AI, as demonstrated by empirical studies, by providing more scalable, axiomatically sound, and uncertainty-aware explanations for predictions generated by structured probabilistic models.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2508_14499
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Exact Shapley Attributions in Quadratic-time for FANOVA Gaussian Processes
Mohammadi, Majid
Muandet, Krikamol
Tiddi, Ilaria
Teije, Annette Ten
Chau, Siu Lun
Machine Learning
Artificial Intelligence
Shapley values are widely recognized as a principled method for attributing importance to input features in machine learning. However, the exact computation of Shapley values scales exponentially with the number of features, severely limiting the practical application of this powerful approach. The challenge is further compounded when the predictive model is probabilistic - as in Gaussian processes (GPs) - where the outputs are random variables rather than point estimates, necessitating additional computational effort in modeling higher-order moments. In this work, we demonstrate that for an important class of GPs known as FANOVA GP, which explicitly models all main effects and interactions, *exact* Shapley attributions for both local and global explanations can be computed in *quadratic time*. For local, instance-wise explanations, we define a stochastic cooperative game over function components and compute the exact stochastic Shapley value in quadratic time only, capturing both the expected contribution and uncertainty. For global explanations, we introduce a deterministic, variance-based value function and compute exact Shapley values that quantify each feature's contribution to the model's overall sensitivity. Our methods leverage a closed-form (stochastic) Möbius representation of the FANOVA decomposition and introduce recursive algorithms, inspired by Newton's identities, to efficiently compute the mean and variance of Shapley values. Our work enhances the utility of explainable AI, as demonstrated by empirical studies, by providing more scalable, axiomatically sound, and uncertainty-aware explanations for predictions generated by structured probabilistic models.
title Exact Shapley Attributions in Quadratic-time for FANOVA Gaussian Processes
topic Machine Learning
Artificial Intelligence
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.14499