A Stochastic Compartmental Model of Suicide Risk Dynamics in U.S. Veterans

Fuente: arXiv
Gespeichert in:
Bibliographische Detailangaben
Hauptverfasser: Singley, Anna, Manore, Carrie, Highlander, Hannah, McMahon, Ben
Format: Preprint
Veröffentlicht: 2025
Schlagworte:
Online-Zugang:
Tags: Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
_version_ 1866916917948710912
author Singley, Anna
Manore, Carrie
Highlander, Hannah
McMahon, Ben
author_facet Singley, Anna
Manore, Carrie
Highlander, Hannah
McMahon, Ben
contents We present a stochastic differential equation model of suicidal progression in U.S. veterans, simulating transitions across mental health states under dynamic stress and covariate influence. Transition rates are modulated by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stress process and clinical features derived from retrospective case-control data. Simulations reveal profile-dependent tipping behavior, with risk-loaded individuals exhibiting persistent ideation and attempt states. Area-under-the-curve and phase plane analyses suggest early warning signals and support the use of individualized dynamical models for suicide risk assessment.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2508_18553
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle A Stochastic Compartmental Model of Suicide Risk Dynamics in U.S. Veterans
Singley, Anna
Manore, Carrie
Highlander, Hannah
McMahon, Ben
Other Quantitative Biology
We present a stochastic differential equation model of suicidal progression in U.S. veterans, simulating transitions across mental health states under dynamic stress and covariate influence. Transition rates are modulated by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stress process and clinical features derived from retrospective case-control data. Simulations reveal profile-dependent tipping behavior, with risk-loaded individuals exhibiting persistent ideation and attempt states. Area-under-the-curve and phase plane analyses suggest early warning signals and support the use of individualized dynamical models for suicide risk assessment.
title A Stochastic Compartmental Model of Suicide Risk Dynamics in U.S. Veterans
topic Other Quantitative Biology
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.18553