A Stochastic Compartmental Model of Suicide Risk Dynamics in U.S. Veterans
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arXiv
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| Hauptverfasser: | , , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2025
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| author | Singley, Anna Manore, Carrie Highlander, Hannah McMahon, Ben |
| author_facet | Singley, Anna Manore, Carrie Highlander, Hannah McMahon, Ben |
| contents | We present a stochastic differential equation model of suicidal progression in U.S. veterans, simulating transitions across mental health states under dynamic stress and covariate influence. Transition rates are modulated by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stress process and clinical features derived from retrospective case-control data. Simulations reveal profile-dependent tipping behavior, with risk-loaded individuals exhibiting persistent ideation and attempt states. Area-under-the-curve and phase plane analyses suggest early warning signals and support the use of individualized dynamical models for suicide risk assessment. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2508_18553 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | A Stochastic Compartmental Model of Suicide Risk Dynamics in U.S. Veterans Singley, Anna Manore, Carrie Highlander, Hannah McMahon, Ben Other Quantitative Biology We present a stochastic differential equation model of suicidal progression in U.S. veterans, simulating transitions across mental health states under dynamic stress and covariate influence. Transition rates are modulated by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stress process and clinical features derived from retrospective case-control data. Simulations reveal profile-dependent tipping behavior, with risk-loaded individuals exhibiting persistent ideation and attempt states. Area-under-the-curve and phase plane analyses suggest early warning signals and support the use of individualized dynamical models for suicide risk assessment. |
| title | A Stochastic Compartmental Model of Suicide Risk Dynamics in U.S. Veterans |
| topic | Other Quantitative Biology |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.18553 |