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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
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2025
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.19331 |
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| _version_ | 1866916981203009536 |
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| author | Bertheas, Tom Gennari, Vasco Tamanini, Nicola |
| author_facet | Bertheas, Tom Gennari, Vasco Tamanini, Nicola |
| contents | Gravitational waves provide a novel and independent measurement of cosmological parameters, offering a promising avenue to address the Hubble tension alongside traditional electromagnetic observations. In the absence of electromagnetic counterparts or complete host galaxy catalogs, current measurements rely on population-based methods that statistically combine black hole merger events. Building on recent models that incorporate additional structure in the primary black hole mass distribution, using public data from the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) collaboration third observing run (O3), we obtain a 30% accuracy improvement on the measurement of the Hubble constant with respect to the result reported by LVK with the third GW transient catalog (GWTC-3). Employing a realistic simulation that includes full Bayesian single-event inference, we present forecasts for the upcoming LVK observational runs, O4 and O5. Using a three power-law mass model, we project a measurement of the Hubble constant with 20% accuracy at O4 sensitivity, improving to 2.7% accuracy at O5 sensitivity. Our findings demonstrate the potential for gravitational waves to provide a substantial contribution to solving the Hubble tension within the next decade of observations. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2508_19331 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Towards a few percent measurement of the Hubble constant with the current network of gravitational wave detectors without using electromagnetic information Bertheas, Tom Gennari, Vasco Tamanini, Nicola General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology Gravitational waves provide a novel and independent measurement of cosmological parameters, offering a promising avenue to address the Hubble tension alongside traditional electromagnetic observations. In the absence of electromagnetic counterparts or complete host galaxy catalogs, current measurements rely on population-based methods that statistically combine black hole merger events. Building on recent models that incorporate additional structure in the primary black hole mass distribution, using public data from the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) collaboration third observing run (O3), we obtain a 30% accuracy improvement on the measurement of the Hubble constant with respect to the result reported by LVK with the third GW transient catalog (GWTC-3). Employing a realistic simulation that includes full Bayesian single-event inference, we present forecasts for the upcoming LVK observational runs, O4 and O5. Using a three power-law mass model, we project a measurement of the Hubble constant with 20% accuracy at O4 sensitivity, improving to 2.7% accuracy at O5 sensitivity. Our findings demonstrate the potential for gravitational waves to provide a substantial contribution to solving the Hubble tension within the next decade of observations. |
| title | Towards a few percent measurement of the Hubble constant with the current network of gravitational wave detectors without using electromagnetic information |
| topic | General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.19331 |