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Main Authors: Bertheas, Tom, Gennari, Vasco, Tamanini, Nicola
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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Online Access:https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.19331
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author Bertheas, Tom
Gennari, Vasco
Tamanini, Nicola
author_facet Bertheas, Tom
Gennari, Vasco
Tamanini, Nicola
contents Gravitational waves provide a novel and independent measurement of cosmological parameters, offering a promising avenue to address the Hubble tension alongside traditional electromagnetic observations. In the absence of electromagnetic counterparts or complete host galaxy catalogs, current measurements rely on population-based methods that statistically combine black hole merger events. Building on recent models that incorporate additional structure in the primary black hole mass distribution, using public data from the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) collaboration third observing run (O3), we obtain a 30% accuracy improvement on the measurement of the Hubble constant with respect to the result reported by LVK with the third GW transient catalog (GWTC-3). Employing a realistic simulation that includes full Bayesian single-event inference, we present forecasts for the upcoming LVK observational runs, O4 and O5. Using a three power-law mass model, we project a measurement of the Hubble constant with 20% accuracy at O4 sensitivity, improving to 2.7% accuracy at O5 sensitivity. Our findings demonstrate the potential for gravitational waves to provide a substantial contribution to solving the Hubble tension within the next decade of observations.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2508_19331
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Towards a few percent measurement of the Hubble constant with the current network of gravitational wave detectors without using electromagnetic information
Bertheas, Tom
Gennari, Vasco
Tamanini, Nicola
General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology
Gravitational waves provide a novel and independent measurement of cosmological parameters, offering a promising avenue to address the Hubble tension alongside traditional electromagnetic observations. In the absence of electromagnetic counterparts or complete host galaxy catalogs, current measurements rely on population-based methods that statistically combine black hole merger events. Building on recent models that incorporate additional structure in the primary black hole mass distribution, using public data from the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) collaboration third observing run (O3), we obtain a 30% accuracy improvement on the measurement of the Hubble constant with respect to the result reported by LVK with the third GW transient catalog (GWTC-3). Employing a realistic simulation that includes full Bayesian single-event inference, we present forecasts for the upcoming LVK observational runs, O4 and O5. Using a three power-law mass model, we project a measurement of the Hubble constant with 20% accuracy at O4 sensitivity, improving to 2.7% accuracy at O5 sensitivity. Our findings demonstrate the potential for gravitational waves to provide a substantial contribution to solving the Hubble tension within the next decade of observations.
title Towards a few percent measurement of the Hubble constant with the current network of gravitational wave detectors without using electromagnetic information
topic General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.19331