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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Preprint |
| Published: |
2025
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.19331 |
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Table of Contents:
- Gravitational waves provide a novel and independent measurement of cosmological parameters, offering a promising avenue to address the Hubble tension alongside traditional electromagnetic observations. In the absence of electromagnetic counterparts or complete host galaxy catalogs, current measurements rely on population-based methods that statistically combine black hole merger events. Building on recent models that incorporate additional structure in the primary black hole mass distribution, using public data from the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) collaboration third observing run (O3), we obtain a 30% accuracy improvement on the measurement of the Hubble constant with respect to the result reported by LVK with the third GW transient catalog (GWTC-3). Employing a realistic simulation that includes full Bayesian single-event inference, we present forecasts for the upcoming LVK observational runs, O4 and O5. Using a three power-law mass model, we project a measurement of the Hubble constant with 20% accuracy at O4 sensitivity, improving to 2.7% accuracy at O5 sensitivity. Our findings demonstrate the potential for gravitational waves to provide a substantial contribution to solving the Hubble tension within the next decade of observations.