The Effects of a Constructed Closure of the Bering Strait on AMOC Tipping Behavior

Fuente: arXiv
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Autori principali: Soons, Jelle, Dijkstra, Henk A.
Natura: Preprint
Pubblicazione: 2025
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author Soons, Jelle
Dijkstra, Henk A.
author_facet Soons, Jelle
Dijkstra, Henk A.
contents The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the present-day climate, and could potentially collapse under sufficient freshwater or CO2-forcing. While the effect of the Bering Strait on AMOC stability has been well studied, it is unknown whether a constructed closure of this Strait can prevent an AMOC collapse under climate change. Here, we show in an Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity that an artificial closure of the Strait can extend the safe carbon budget of the AMOC, provided that the AMOC is strong enough at the closure time. Specifically, for this model, an equilibrium AMOC with a reduction below (6.1 +/- 0.5)% from pre-industrial has an additional budget up to 500PgC given a sufficiently early closure, while for a weaker AMOC a closure reduces this budget. This indicates that constructing this closure could be a feasible climate intervention strategy to prevent an AMOC collapse.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2508_19826
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle The Effects of a Constructed Closure of the Bering Strait on AMOC Tipping Behavior
Soons, Jelle
Dijkstra, Henk A.
Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the present-day climate, and could potentially collapse under sufficient freshwater or CO2-forcing. While the effect of the Bering Strait on AMOC stability has been well studied, it is unknown whether a constructed closure of this Strait can prevent an AMOC collapse under climate change. Here, we show in an Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity that an artificial closure of the Strait can extend the safe carbon budget of the AMOC, provided that the AMOC is strong enough at the closure time. Specifically, for this model, an equilibrium AMOC with a reduction below (6.1 +/- 0.5)% from pre-industrial has an additional budget up to 500PgC given a sufficiently early closure, while for a weaker AMOC a closure reduces this budget. This indicates that constructing this closure could be a feasible climate intervention strategy to prevent an AMOC collapse.
title The Effects of a Constructed Closure of the Bering Strait on AMOC Tipping Behavior
topic Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2508.19826