Discrete Chi-Square Method can model and forecast complex time series, like El Nino data between 1870 and 2026

Fuente: arXiv

Gespeichert in:

Bibliographische Detailangaben
1. Verfasser:	Jetsu, Lauri
Format:	Preprint
Veröffentlicht:	2025
Schlagworte:	Methodology
Online-Zugang:	Acceder al recurso
Tags:	Tag hinzufügen Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!

Ähnliche Einträge

Do the planets cause the sunspot cycles?
von: Jetsu, Lauri
Veröffentlicht: (2023)

The Chi-Square Test of Distance Correlation
von: Shen, Cencheng, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2019)

Zero-disparity Distribution Synthesis: Fast Exact Calculation of Chi-Squared Statistic Distribution for Discrete Uniform Histograms
von: Banić, Nikola, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2025)

Confidence Intervals Based on the Modified Chi-Squared Distribution and its Applications in Medicine
von: Wu, Mulan, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2025)

Interpretable models for forecasting high-dimensional functional time series
von: Shang, Han Lin, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2026)

Nonstationary functional time series forecasting
von: Shang, Han Lin, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2024)

Discrete forecast reconciliation
von: Zhang, Bohan, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2023)

A dynamic copula model for probabilistic forecasting of non-Gaussian multivariate time series
von: Zito, John, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2025)

Latent Gaussian dynamic factor modeling and forecasting for multivariate count time series
von: Kim, Younghoon, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2023)

Online conformal inference for multi-step time series forecasting
von: Wang, Xiaoqian, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2024)

Dynamic linear regression models for forecasting time series with semi long memory errors
von: Goodwin, Thomas, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2024)

A projected nonlinear state-space model for forecasting time series signals
von: Donner, Christian, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2023)

Constructing hierarchical time series through clustering: Is there an optimal way for forecasting?
von: Zhang, Bohan, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2024)

A Directional Measure of Marginal Inhomogeneity for Square Contingency Tables using Discrete-time hazard
von: Tamura, Jun, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2025)

The Bayesian Context Trees State Space Model for time series modelling and forecasting
von: Papageorgiou, Ioannis, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2023)

FNETS: Factor-adjusted network estimation and forecasting for high-dimensional time series
von: Barigozzi, Matteo, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2022)

Coherent forecast combination for linearly constrained multiple time series
von: Girolimetto, Daniele, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2024)

rfBLT: Random Feature Bayesian Lasso Takens Model for time series forecasting
von: Nguyen, Thu, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2025)

On testing for independence between generalized error models of several time series
von: Ghoudi, Kilani, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2024)

Generalised mixed effects models for changepoint analysis of biomedical time series data
von: Fiecas, Mark B., et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2024)

Tobit models for count time series
von: Weiß, Christian H., et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2024)

Spatiotemporal factor models for functional data with application to population map forecast
von: Wakayama, Tomoya, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2023)

Pearson Chi-squared Conditional Randomization Test
von: Javanmard, Adel, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2021)

A latent space model for multivariate count data time series analysis
von: Kaur, Hardeep, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2024)

A Principal Square Response Forward Regression Method for Dimension Reduction
von: Li, Zheng, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2024)

Factor modelling for high-dimensional functional time series
von: Guo, Shaojun, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2021)

The projected dynamic linear model for time series on the sphere
von: Zito, John, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2023)

A marginalized three-part interrupted time series regression model for proportional data
von: Ye, Shangyuan, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2022)

A loss discounting framework for model averaging and selection in time series models
von: Bernaciak, Dawid, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2022)

Dynamic causal inference with time series data
von: Schaffe-Odeleye, Tanique, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2026)

Applying non-negative matrix factorization with covariates to multivariate time series data as a vector autoregression model
von: Satoh, Kenichi
Veröffentlicht: (2025)

Robust tests for parameter change in conditionally heteroscedastic time series models
von: Song, Junmo
Veröffentlicht: (2025)

Information matrix test for normality of innovations in stationary time series models
von: Liu, Zixuan, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2024)

Parametric model for post-processing visibility ensemble forecasts
von: Baran, Ágnes, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2023)

Online detection of forecast model inadequacies using forecast errors
von: Grundy, Thomas, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2025)

Tail-robust factor modelling of vector and tensor time series in high dimensions
von: Barigozzi, Matteo, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2024)

Nonparametric method of structural break detection in stochastic time series regression model
von: Roy, Archi, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2024)

Bipartite causal inference with interference, time series data, and a random network
von: Song, Zhaoyan, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2024)

Nonparametric data segmentation in multivariate time series via joint characteristic functions
von: McGonigle, Euan T., et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2023)

Multipopulation mortality modelling and forecasting: The multivariate functional principal component with time weightings approaches
von: Lam, Ka Kin, et al.
Veröffentlicht: (2021)

if (filemtime($filename) + $maxlifetime < time()) { unlink($filename); $count++; } } return $count; } /** * A function that is called internally when session data is to be saved. * * @param string $sessId The current session ID * @param string $data The session data to write * * @return bool */ protected function saveSession($sessId, $data): bool { $sessFile = $this->path . '/sess_' . $sessId; if ($handle = fopen($sessFile, 'w')) { $return = false; // Lock the file for exclusive access to avoid issues with multiple // processes writing session simultaneously: if (flock($handle, LOCK_EX)) { $return = fwrite($handle, $data); // Make sure that there's no trailing data by truncating the file to // the correct length: ftruncate($handle, strlen($data)); fflush($handle); flock($handle, LOCK_UN); } fclose($handle); if ($return !== false) { return true; } } // If we got this far, something went wrong with the file output... // It is tempting to throw an exception here, but this code is called // outside of the context of exception handling, so all we can do is // echo a message.

// Anecdotal testing Today and Yesterday seems to indicate destroy() // is called by the garbage collector and everything is good. // Something to keep in mind though. return 0; } /** * Write function that is called when session data is to be saved. * * @param string $sessId The current session ID * @param string $data The session data to write * * @return bool */ public function write($sessId, $data): bool { if ($this->writesDisabled) { return true; } return $this->saveSession($sessId, $data); } /** * A function that is called internally when session data is to be saved. * * @param string $sessId The current session ID * @param string $data The session data to write * * @return bool */ abstract protected function saveSession($sessId, $data): bool; }

* * @return void */ public function writeClose() { // The assumption is that we're using PHP's ext/session. // session_write_close() will actually overwrite $_SESSION with an // empty array on completion -- which leads to a mismatch between what // is in the storage object and $_SESSION. To get around this, we // temporarily reset $_SESSION to an array, and then re-link it to // the storage object. // // Additionally, while you _can_ write to $_SESSION following a // session_write_close() operation, no changes made to it will be // flushed to the session handler. As such, we now mark the storage // object isImmutable. $storage = $this->getStorage(); if (! $storage->isImmutable()) { $_SESSION = $storage->toArray(true); session_write_close(); $storage->fromArray($_SESSION); $storage->markImmutable(); } } /** * Attempt to set the session name * * If the session has already been started, or if the name provided fails * validation, an exception will be raised. * * @param string $name * @return SessionManager * @throws Exception\InvalidArgumentException */ public function setName($name) { if ($this->sessionExists()) { throw new Exception\InvalidArgumentException( 'Cannot set session name after a session has already started'

Environment & details:

GET Data empty

POST Data empty

Files empty

Key	Value
VUFIND_SESSION	"8e9c674bfa6c224f50f0861b8975c5e8"
ui	"standard"
language	"de"

Session

Key	Value
__Laminas	array:2 [`"_REQUEST_ACCESS_TIME" => 1790882275.9451 "_VALID" => array:1 [ "Laminas\Session\Validator\Id" => "8e9c674bfa6c224f50f0861b8975c5e8" ]`]
SessionState	Laminas\Stdlib\ArrayObject {#938}
FlashMessenger	Laminas\Stdlib\ArrayObject {#1433}
SessionHelper	Laminas\Stdlib\ArrayObject {#1759}

Server/Request Data

Key	Value
REDIRECT_VUFIND_LOCAL_DIR	"/usr/local/vufind/local"
REDIRECT_HTTPS	"on"
REDIRECT_SSL_TLS_SNI	"info.umar.mx"
REDIRECT_STATUS	"200"
VUFIND_LOCAL_DIR	"/usr/local/vufind/local"
HTTPS	"on"
SSL_TLS_SNI	"info.umar.mx"
HTTP_ACCEPT	"/"
HTTP_USER_AGENT	"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)"
HTTP_COOKIE	"VUFIND_SESSION=8e9c674bfa6c224f50f0861b8975c5e8; ui=standard; language=de"
HTTP_ACCEPT_ENCODING	"gzip, br, zstd, deflate"
HTTP_HOST	"info.umar.mx"
PATH	"/usr/local/sbin:/usr/local/bin:/usr/sbin:/usr/bin:/snap/bin"
SERVER_SIGNATURE	"<address>Apache/2.4.66 (Ubuntu) Server at info.umar.mx Port 443</address>\n"
SERVER_SOFTWARE	"Apache/2.4.66 (Ubuntu)"
SERVER_NAME	"info.umar.mx"
SERVER_ADDR	"200.23.222.19"
SERVER_PORT	"443"
REMOTE_ADDR	"216.73.217.142"
DOCUMENT_ROOT	"/usr/local/vufind/public"
REQUEST_SCHEME	"https"
CONTEXT_PREFIX	""
CONTEXT_DOCUMENT_ROOT	"/usr/local/vufind/public"
SERVER_ADMIN	"admin@localhost"
SCRIPT_FILENAME	"/usr/local/vufind/public/index.php"
REMOTE_PORT	"22589"
REDIRECT_URL	""" /Record/\n arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_01540/Similar """
GATEWAY_INTERFACE	"CGI/1.1"
SERVER_PROTOCOL	"HTTP/1.1"
REQUEST_METHOD	"GET"
QUERY_STRING	""
REQUEST_URI	"/Record/%0Aarxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_01540/Similar"
SCRIPT_NAME	"/index.php"
PHP_SELF	"/index.php"
REQUEST_TIME_FLOAT	1790882275.9284
REQUEST_TIME	1790882275

Environment Variables empty

Registered Handlers

0. Whoops\Handler\PrettyPageHandler