Non-Linear Counterfactual Aggregate Optimization
Fuente:
arXiv
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| Autori principali: | , |
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866914019607052288 |
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| author | Heymann, Benjamin Sakhi, Otmane |
| author_facet | Heymann, Benjamin Sakhi, Otmane |
| contents | We consider the problem of directly optimizing a non-linear function of an outcome, where this outcome itself is the sum of many small contributions. The non-linearity of the function means that the problem is not equivalent to the maximization of the expectation of the individual contribution. By leveraging the concentration properties of the sum of individual outcomes, we derive a scalable descent algorithm that directly optimizes for our stated objective. This allows for instance to maximize the probability of successful A/B test, for which it can be wiser to target a success criterion, such as exceeding a given uplift, rather than chasing the highest expected payoff. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_03438 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Non-Linear Counterfactual Aggregate Optimization Heymann, Benjamin Sakhi, Otmane Machine Learning We consider the problem of directly optimizing a non-linear function of an outcome, where this outcome itself is the sum of many small contributions. The non-linearity of the function means that the problem is not equivalent to the maximization of the expectation of the individual contribution. By leveraging the concentration properties of the sum of individual outcomes, we derive a scalable descent algorithm that directly optimizes for our stated objective. This allows for instance to maximize the probability of successful A/B test, for which it can be wiser to target a success criterion, such as exceeding a given uplift, rather than chasing the highest expected payoff. |
| title | Non-Linear Counterfactual Aggregate Optimization |
| topic | Machine Learning |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.03438 |