Sensitivity analysis of an epidemic model with a mass vaccination program of a homogeneous population
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arXiv
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| Natura: | Preprint |
| Pubblicazione: |
2025
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| _version_ | 1866908590621589504 |
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| author | Bargo, Ma. Cristina R. |
| author_facet | Bargo, Ma. Cristina R. |
| contents | The COVID-19 pandemic forced the rapid development of vaccines and the implementation of mass vaccination programs around the world. However, many hesitated to take the vaccine due to concerns about its effectiveness. By looking at an ordinary differential equation (ODE) model of disease spread that incorporates a mass vaccination program, this study aims to determine the sensitivity of the cumulative count of infected individuals ($W$) and the cumulative death count ($D$) to the following model parameters: disease transmission rate ($β$), reciprocal of the disease latency period ($κ$), reciprocal of the infectious period ($γ$), death ratio ($α$), vaccine efficacy rate ($r$), and vaccine rollout rate ($δ$). This was implemented using Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficient. Results show that $D$ is highly sensitive to $α$ and shows increasing sensitivity to $δ$ in the long run. On the other hand, $W$ is highly sensitive to $κ$ at the beginning of the simulation, but this weakens over time. In contrast, $W$ is not very sensitive to $δ$ initially but becomes very significant in the long run. This supports the importance of the vaccine rollout rate over the vaccine efficacy rate in curbing the spread of the disease in the population. It is also worthwhile to reduce the death ratio by developing a cure for the disease or improving the healthcare system as a whole. |
| format | Preprint |
| id |
arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_04188 |
| institution | arXiv |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| record_format | arxiv |
| spellingShingle | Sensitivity analysis of an epidemic model with a mass vaccination program of a homogeneous population Bargo, Ma. Cristina R. Populations and Evolution Numerical Analysis 92D30 (Primary), 65L05, 90C31 (Secondary) The COVID-19 pandemic forced the rapid development of vaccines and the implementation of mass vaccination programs around the world. However, many hesitated to take the vaccine due to concerns about its effectiveness. By looking at an ordinary differential equation (ODE) model of disease spread that incorporates a mass vaccination program, this study aims to determine the sensitivity of the cumulative count of infected individuals ($W$) and the cumulative death count ($D$) to the following model parameters: disease transmission rate ($β$), reciprocal of the disease latency period ($κ$), reciprocal of the infectious period ($γ$), death ratio ($α$), vaccine efficacy rate ($r$), and vaccine rollout rate ($δ$). This was implemented using Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficient. Results show that $D$ is highly sensitive to $α$ and shows increasing sensitivity to $δ$ in the long run. On the other hand, $W$ is highly sensitive to $κ$ at the beginning of the simulation, but this weakens over time. In contrast, $W$ is not very sensitive to $δ$ initially but becomes very significant in the long run. This supports the importance of the vaccine rollout rate over the vaccine efficacy rate in curbing the spread of the disease in the population. It is also worthwhile to reduce the death ratio by developing a cure for the disease or improving the healthcare system as a whole. |
| title | Sensitivity analysis of an epidemic model with a mass vaccination program of a homogeneous population |
| topic | Populations and Evolution Numerical Analysis 92D30 (Primary), 65L05, 90C31 (Secondary) |
| url | https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.04188 |