Monitoring Adverse Events Through Bayesian Nonparametric Clustering Across Studies

Fuente: arXiv
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Main Authors: Yuan, Shijie, Roberts, Kevin, Chandra, Noirrit Kiran, Ji, Yuan, Müller, Peter
Format: Preprint
Published: 2025
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author Yuan, Shijie
Roberts, Kevin
Chandra, Noirrit Kiran
Ji, Yuan
Müller, Peter
author_facet Yuan, Shijie
Roberts, Kevin
Chandra, Noirrit Kiran
Ji, Yuan
Müller, Peter
contents We introduce a Bayesian nonparametric inference approach for aggregate adverse event (AE) monitoring across studies. The proposed model seamlessly integrates external data from historical trials to define a relevant background rate and accommodates varying levels of covariate granularity (ranging from patient-level details to study-level aggregated summary data). Inference is based on a covariate-dependent product partition model (PPMx). A central element of the model is the ability to group experimental units with similar profiles. We introduce a pairwise similarity measure, with which we set up a random partition of experimental units with comparable covariate profiles, thereby improving the precision of AE rate estimation. Importantly, the proposed framework supports real-time safety monitoring under blinding with a seamless transition to unblinded analyses when indicated. Using one case study and simulation studies, we demonstrate the model's ability to detect safety signals and assess risk under diverse trial scenarios.
format Preprint
id arxiv_https___arxiv_org_abs_2509_07267
institution arXiv
publishDate 2025
record_format arxiv
spellingShingle Monitoring Adverse Events Through Bayesian Nonparametric Clustering Across Studies
Yuan, Shijie
Roberts, Kevin
Chandra, Noirrit Kiran
Ji, Yuan
Müller, Peter
Methodology
Applications
We introduce a Bayesian nonparametric inference approach for aggregate adverse event (AE) monitoring across studies. The proposed model seamlessly integrates external data from historical trials to define a relevant background rate and accommodates varying levels of covariate granularity (ranging from patient-level details to study-level aggregated summary data). Inference is based on a covariate-dependent product partition model (PPMx). A central element of the model is the ability to group experimental units with similar profiles. We introduce a pairwise similarity measure, with which we set up a random partition of experimental units with comparable covariate profiles, thereby improving the precision of AE rate estimation. Importantly, the proposed framework supports real-time safety monitoring under blinding with a seamless transition to unblinded analyses when indicated. Using one case study and simulation studies, we demonstrate the model's ability to detect safety signals and assess risk under diverse trial scenarios.
title Monitoring Adverse Events Through Bayesian Nonparametric Clustering Across Studies
topic Methodology
Applications
url https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.07267